Monday - March 30, 2026
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 569 Ratings
🗓️ 30 March 2026
⏱️ 12 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4dTkNSp
The Monday Dividend Cafe recaps sharp intraday volatility as the Dow finished slightly up while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed down, with financials and utilities outperforming and industrials and technology lagging; the Nasdaq is down about 10% since the recent selloff began and many “Mag Seven” stocks are down over 20%, alongside steep declines in bitcoin and other high-risk names. David describes a broad risk-off posture intensified by the Iran-related military situation, notes WTI around $104 (up roughly 50% since the war began), and highlights relative strength in energy, midstream, refiners, and other commodity-sensitive areas. Bond yields remain elevated but the 10-year fell about nine basis points to 4.35%, and he argues long-end term premium is likely too high. He advises against disrupting a coherent investment plan amid uncertainty, covers brief policy updates (DHS funding, a 401(k) private markets rule proposal, David Sachs leaving his crypto/AI role, an Anthropic-related court ruling, and Fed futures), and previews an energy-focused Dividend Cafe later in the week.
00:00 Market Whipsaw Recap
00:48 Risk Curve Reality Check
01:59 Bonds Yields and Term Premium
03:25 Sector Winners and Losers
04:18 Stay the Course Investing
05:48 War Headlines and Uncertainty
06:37 Policy Updates and 401k Rule
07:56 Housing and Fed Odds
08:39 Oil Midstream and Wrap Up
09:03 Closing Notes and Week Ahead
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio |
| 0:06.6 | and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:10.0 | Hello and welcome to the Monday edition of the Dividend Cafe. |
| 0:15.9 | We are in the midst, you may have heard, of some pretty fascinating intraday market volatility. |
| 0:23.5 | And today was no exception. The market opened 350 points in the Dow. It closed up just 50. |
| 0:31.1 | The S&P and the NASDAQ both opened up quite a lot to the upside and both closed down on the day. The S&P was down about 40 basis |
| 0:40.9 | points. The NASDAQ was down about 75 basis points. The Dow being up 50 points meant just over 10 |
| 0:48.3 | basis points. So a tiny upside in the Dow. A very good day for financials, for utilities, a very bad day for |
| 0:57.7 | industrials and, again, technology. The NASDAQ is down about 10% since this whole escapade began. |
| 1:06.7 | S&P's right behind it. Most of the MAG7 stocks are down well over 20%. Some are down over 35. |
| 1:14.5 | Bitcoin is down 50%. Some of the Ponzi-like Bitcoin stocks are down 75%. I bring that up just to say that |
| 1:22.5 | there's a sort of risk ecosystem. And as you go up that risk curve, the violence of the downside is more severe. |
| 1:30.3 | Even within the AI story, you look at something like Nvidia that's down over 20%. |
| 1:36.3 | You look at Palantir that's down 35, and then you look at Corleave that's down much more. |
| 1:42.3 | So as you move out the risk curve, some of these names have taken |
| 1:46.2 | on more downside. It's a risk-off posture we're in, no question, at least for the time being. And it's |
| 1:52.3 | made the highest valuation stocks the most vulnerable. I'm not convinced all of this is an Iran story. |
| 1:59.3 | I think a lot of this clearly started before that, |
| 2:02.1 | but obviously the military operation has exacerbated the general riskoff's feeling, and it's democratized it across other sectors of the market. |
| 2:11.7 | The 10-year bond yield close today at 4.35%. So that was an upside, and that's why some of the rate-sensitive sectors, |
| 2:19.6 | utilities, financials, I mentioned, et cetera, did better. But the bond market today had one of its |
| 2:24.7 | bigger rallies since this began. The tenure alone was down nine basis points, but that shows you how |
... |
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