Tuesday - January 14, 2025
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 14 January 2025
⏱️ 6 minutes
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Summary
Market Updates and Economic Insights - January 14th, 2025
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides market updates from West Palm Beach, Florida, covering the mixed yet positive performance of major stock indices. The Dow Jones rose 221 points, S&P 500 saw a slight increase, while NASDAQ declined by about a quarter of a percent. Interest rates remained flat with a notable steepening of the yield curve, indicating positive economic signals. Highlights include a lower-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) and a significantly strong NFIB Small Business Survey reading. Comparisons were drawn between current economic conditions and those of the early 1980s. Listeners are encouraged to tune in for tomorrow's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview
00:48 Inflation and Yield Curve Insights
01:52 Small Business Sentiment
02:40 Historical Economic Comparisons
03:39 Market Recap and Closing Remarks
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.0 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Tuesday, January the 14th, Brian Saitel with you from R.S. Palm Beach, Florida office. |
| 0:20.0 | On a generally mixed day, |
| 0:22.5 | although more positive than negative in markets, on the stock market on the equity side, |
| 0:28.1 | the Dow was up 221 points. SMP was slightly positive by about a tenth of a percent. |
| 0:34.7 | NASDAQ continued its sort of underperformance here in 2025 and was down |
| 0:39.5 | about a quarter of a percent on the day. So a little mix there. We had interest rates basically |
| 0:44.5 | completely flat on the day, 10-year closed right at 479. We did see the curve steepen a bit, |
| 0:49.7 | and you had 30-year yields intraday breached the 5% figure. |
| 0:56.3 | Been over a year since they've done that. |
| 1:02.1 | So a steepening yield curve typically signals positive economic data, and that's, at least in a mixed way, what we did see today, because we got both an input inflationary number |
| 1:07.8 | on PPI, producer price index, that was much less than expected. So a cooler |
| 1:12.8 | number on an input side of inflation. We had the PPI number come out on headline at just 0.2%. |
| 1:21.0 | We were expecting 0.4, or at least consensus was, for the month of December, so about half as much, |
| 1:27.0 | meaningfully lower on the PPI number. |
| 1:29.2 | And then if you move out food and energy, core PPI was zero, was unchanged when a 0.3 |
| 1:35.1 | positive was expected. |
| 1:36.4 | So good news on the inflation side tomorrow. |
| 1:39.2 | We're going to have the CPI number, which will be a more watched figure. |
| 1:43.4 | But for today, though, this is a good start |
| 1:45.3 | on what we're seeing on the inflation side. And we've spoken about the disinflation narrative for |
| 1:49.8 | quite some time. So continuing to see it play out, of course, it's never in a straight line. So |
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