TTU152: Where is the Open? ft. Toby Crabel
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 712 Ratings
🗓️ 15 April 2026
⏱️ 65 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Markets are not stable systems. They evolve, adapt, and quietly erode the edges traders rely on. In this episode, Toby Crabel reflects on decades of experience navigating that reality, from the early days of Opening Range Breakout strategies to today’s fragmented and highly competitive landscape. He explains why momentum behaves differently now, how liquidity has shifted across sessions, and why execution has become a defining edge. The conversation also explores the limits of AI, the persistence of technical principles, and the importance of adapting without overfitting. At its core, this is a discussion about humility, uncertainty, and staying relevant as markets change.
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Episode Timestamps:
00:00 - Markets are probabilistic and inherently uncertain
01:40 - Introduction to Toby Crabel and his career
03:01 - From tennis to trading and early market exposure
06:10 - Opening range breakout and early momentum edge
08:04 - Why momentum strategies have deteriorated over time
14:21 - The disappearance of the “open” in modern markets
17:53 - Are markets changing or just the participants
20:34 - Liquidity events and large player behavior
24:14 - The role and limits of technical analysis
32:44 - Model decay and adapting systematic strategies
39:17 - Execution as a primary source of edge
40:40 - AI, automation, and the future of trading
51:18 - Effort vs result and the meaning of volume
56:56 - Are we entering a 1970s style macro regime?
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Markets are non-linear creatures. |
| 0:10.0 | We deal with in precision and probabilities only. |
| 0:16.0 | And there's one thing that, you know, the market psychologists generally say that, you've got to expect that anything |
| 0:23.4 | can happen. Anything can happen in the markets. Today's a great example, so for God's sake. |
| 0:32.0 | And it's a humbling, it's a humbling thing. It really is. It's humbling for a systematic trader. It's |
| 0:38.6 | humbling for a discretionary trader or anybody that's watching what's going on. |
| 0:44.7 | Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders. Imagine learning from their |
| 0:49.7 | experiences, their successes, and their failures. Imagine no more. |
| 0:55.0 | Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged, the place where you can learn from the best hedge fund managers in the world, |
| 1:01.0 | so you can take your manager due diligence or investment career to the next level. |
| 1:05.0 | Before we begin today's conversation, remember to keep two things in mind. |
| 1:09.0 | All the discussion we'll have about investment |
| 1:11.5 | performance is about the past, and past performance does not guarantee or even infer anything |
| 1:16.8 | about future performance. Also understand that there's a significant risk of financial loss |
| 1:21.3 | with all investment strategies, and you need to request and understand the specific risks |
| 1:26.0 | from the investment manager about their product |
| 1:28.1 | before you make investment decisions. Here's your host, veteran hedge fund manager, |
| 1:33.2 | Niels Kostrup Larson. |
| 1:40.3 | Hey everyone and welcome to another edition of Top Traders on Pluck, where today Alan Dunn and I are delighted to be joined by no other than Toby Crable, |
| 1:48.1 | the founder of Crable Capital Management, as part of our series focusing on CTA and managed future strategies and the legends that make up this wonderful industry. |
| 1:57.6 | Toby, it's a real pleasure to have you on the podcast. You've had a front row seat |
| 2:02.3 | to how markets have evolved over several decades and how edges that once worked incredibly well, |
... |
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