SI395: Finding Alpha in the Strait of Chaos ft. Andrew Beer
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 712 Ratings
🗓️ 11 April 2026
⏱️ 76 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Markets are currently being shaped by geopolitical uncertainty, rapid technological change, and shifting investor behavior. In this episode, Andrew and Niels explore how these forces are influencing trend following and systematic investing. They discuss recent market volatility, the impact of global conflict on asset prices, and why traditional diversification assumptions are being tested. A key focus is the evolving structure of the CTA industry, including the rise of ETFs and the debate between complexity and simplicity in generating alpha. The conversation also examines replication strategies, implementation costs, and whether simpler approaches may deliver more efficient and consistent outcomes over time.
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Episode TimeStamps:
01:27 - Geopolitical uncertainty and parallels to past crises
03:13 - Why this crisis feels different from previous ones
04:24 - Ideology, negotiation, and unintended consequences
06:16 - AI, technology, and the changing global landscape
10:58 - Technology dependence and societal tradeoffs
12:37 - Market environment and trend following conditions
16:02 - CTA performance and the macro “do over” of 2026
21:11 - Traditional markets vs systematic strategies
22:39 - Hedge fund losses and dispersion across strategies
25:48 - CTA alpha, simplicity, and ETF performance
32:42 - Complexity vs efficiency in portfolio construction
39:40 - Hidden implementation costs in systematic trading
52:21 - QIS strategies and the illusion of beta
57:43 - Structural challenges in QIS products
01:03:12 - Index construction, research, and innovation constraints
01:08:47 - Fees, transparency, and real investor costs
01:12:41 - Product evolution and the future of systematic investing
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged. |
| 0:03.0 | In markets, success doesn't come from predicting what happens next. |
| 0:07.0 | It comes from being prepared for what you can't predict. |
| 0:11.0 | In each episode, we go deep with some of the world's most thoughtful minds in investing, economics, and beyond |
| 0:18.0 | to understand how they think, how they prepare, and how they decide, and the |
| 0:22.2 | experiences that shaped how they see the world. No noise, no shortcuts, just real conversations |
| 0:28.5 | to help you think better and invest with confidence. Welcome and welcome back to this week's |
| 0:36.9 | edition of the Systematic Investor Series with Andrew Beer and I, |
| 0:40.2 | Niels Karzalsen, where each week we take the pulse of the global market through the lens of a rules-based investor. |
| 0:45.8 | Andrew, it is wonderful, as always, to have you back this week on the podcast. How are you doing? |
| 0:51.4 | I'm great, thank you. Thank you for, thank you for having me back, as always, and thrilled to be here. |
| 0:56.0 | Absolutely, absolutely. |
| 0:57.4 | It's always good to have you on and give some perspective on your side of our industry, so to speak. |
| 1:04.6 | Before we get into the topics, you brought along quite a few. |
| 1:08.7 | So it will be a fun conversation today, no doubt. |
| 1:12.9 | You know, I like to just ask you a little bit about what's been on your radar, |
| 1:17.2 | not necessarily anything we're going to talk about today, |
| 1:19.9 | but just what's come across your radar in the last few weeks since we last spoke. |
| 1:25.2 | Anything in particular springs to mind? |
| 1:27.2 | I think my radar is consumed by trying to figure out what's going on on the G-R-R-B a few weeks since we last spoke. Anything in particular springs to mind? |
| 1:32.4 | I think my radar is consumed by trying to figure out what's going on on the geopolitical front. |
| 1:41.8 | So, like, the entire radar screen at midnight, at 2.30 in the morning, I find it very unsettling where we are. It reminds me, a sense of a little bit after what it felt like in 9-11 in the US, |
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