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The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Trump Backs down on Tariffs – Ep. 419

The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Peter Schiff

Business News, Business, Investing, News, Politics

4.65.9K Ratings

🗓️ 4 December 2018

⏱️ 54 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

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Interest Rates and Trade War
The two things that everybody seems to agree were weighing down the markets were the Fed's relentless drive to normalize interest rates, and figure out where "normal" was, and, of course, the trade war - the threat of additional tariffs overhanging the markets.  So I think it was pretty clear to President Trump who is hanging his hat on the stock market, has decided that the stock market performance is the best barometer of his Presidency. So the fact that the stock market was falling was really a big problem for the President so he had to do what he could to try to get the stock market to go back up.
Fed Restated "Normal"
The first part of the two-pronged attack was the interest rates. Whether he was able to convince Powell to change his tune or whether Trump just got lucky and the Fed decided to backtrack, as I mentioned in my last podcast, the Fed has now said, "We are just below normal." Meaning that we only need one more rate hike before we get to normal, whereas in the past the Fed had said that normal was quite a ways away, and that the Fed would have to raise rates many, many more times in order to achieve normal.  And of course, anybody who knows anything about the history of interest rates would have to agree that where we are now, at 2% is historically abnormal. It obviously could not be considered neutral based on any kind of past precedent. So the fact that the market was able to backtrack so quickly really threw a bone that the market and Donald Trump badly needed..
Trade Tensions Weighing Down the Market
But the other factor that was weighing down the market was all the trade tensions, and all the talk about the tariffs that were going to be imposed in less than a month. The first of next year we were going to get these 25% across-the-board tariffs. Our Sponsors: * Check out Chilipad and use my code sleep.me/GOLD for a great deal: https://sleep.me * Check out DBJourney and use my code Schiff15 for a great deal: https://dbjourney.com * Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com * Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://plaud.ai * Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/gold for a great deal: https://www.quince.com * Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

The Peter Ships Show.

0:09.2

The two things that everybody seemed to agree were weighing down the markets where the

0:14.9

Fed and their relentless drive to normalize interest rates and figure out where normal

0:21.2

was, however far above the current rate normal was, and of course the trade war and the threat

0:28.6

of additional tariffs that were overhanging the markets.

0:33.2

And so I think it was pretty clear to Donald Trump who is really, you know, hanging his

0:38.2

hat on the stock market has already decided that the stock market is the best parameter

0:44.7

of his presidency and all of the wealth that is the result of an increasing stock market.

0:50.4

So the fact that the stock market was falling was obviously a big problem for the president

0:55.1

and so he had to do what he could to try to get the stock market to go back up.

1:01.5

And so I think the first part of that and the two prong attack was the interest rates.

1:07.9

And whether he was able to convince Powell to change his tune, you know, kind of get

1:13.6

his mind right, cool hand Luke style, or whether he just got lucky and the Fed decided to

1:19.7

backtrack.

1:21.0

But as I mentioned in my last podcasts, the Fed has now said that we are just below normal,

1:28.2

meaning that we only need one more rate hike before we get to normal.

1:32.6

Whereas in the past, the Fed had basically said that normal is still quite a ways away.

1:38.0

And that the Fed would have to raise rates many, many more times in order to achieve normal.

1:43.2

And of course anybody who knows anything about the history of interest rates would have

1:47.4

to agree that where we are now at 2% is historically abnormal and obviously could not be considered

1:55.4

neutral based on any kind of past precedent.

1:59.6

So the fact that the Fed was able to backtrack so quickly, really through the market of

...

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