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The Property Podcast

TPP556: Can you still trust the 18-year property cycle?

The Property Podcast

Rob Bence & Rob Dix

News, Education, Business, Investing, Business News

4.82K Ratings

🗓️ 9 November 2023

⏱️ 32 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Rob & Rob are losing faith in the 18-year property cycle...  Can we still look to the cycle for guidance on what’s actually happening in the market, or has the concept finally been rendered redundant?   Join Rob Dix as he interviews cycle expert Akhil Patel, and dives into everything you need to know about the cycle, whether it can still be trusted today and how you can make practical use of it.  Links mentioned:  The secret wealth advantage – Akhil's book TPP542: Is the 18-year property cycle dead?  Enjoy the show?  Leave us a review on Apple Podcasts - it really helps others find us!  Sign up for our free weekly newsletter, Property Pulse  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to the Property Podcast. Rob D here. No Rob B this week, but don't worry, I found a pretty good replacement.

0:20.0

This week I'm chatting to Ackle Patel, whose work on the property cycle we've been following since all the way back in 2014.

0:27.0

And ever since then, Akil's knowledge of the cycle has allowed him to be very right about what's going to happen next over times when a lot of other people

0:34.6

have been very, very wrong.

0:36.7

I wanted to catch up with Ackle for a couple of reasons.

0:39.2

Firstly, his book, The Secret Wealth Advantage, came out recently, so I wanted to ask him some questions about that.

0:44.4

But also, as you'll know, if you listen to episode 542 back in August,

0:48.7

Rob and I have been having some doubts about the property cycle.

0:51.6

And in that episode, we came up with a couple of alternative scenarios about how things

0:55.8

might pan out, and I wanted to put those scenarios to the expert and hear what he had to say.

1:01.1

And his answers, I think, were very revealing and have certainly given me a lot to think about when it comes to my own views.

1:07.0

So I'm sure you will love this episode and without further ado here's my conversation with Akel Patel.

1:12.0

Akel I hope you're feeling a weight of responsibility because it's down to you to defend the 18-year

1:17.5

property cycle on the property podcast because Rob and I are losing the faith.

1:22.0

We could talk a bit about why. We're falling into this time a different trap. I know we're doing it, but I still can't fight against it. Are you still on for a 2026 finish all there about?

1:32.8

A peak in 2026, yes I am.

1:34.8

Maybe, I suppose I should ask you the question,

1:37.3

why are you losing the faith?

1:38.6

Yeah, I suppose, it's because.

1:41.3

So if we consider ourselves to be what like three two three years out from a

1:46.1

peak we just feel so far from that behavior you know so we're clearly in sort of like a minor decline at the moment across most

1:56.8

parts of the country. I know that other countries are irrelevant as well, but I say probably

...

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