Hello, and welcome to the Too Big to be Small edition of Slate Money,

your Guide to the Business and Finance of the Week.

I'm Felix Simon of Axios.

I'm here with Emily Peck of Huffpost and I'm here with Anna Shimansky of Breaking views.

Hello.

And we are going to talk about the Reverend Thomas Bays. We're going to talk about the Reverend Thomas Bays.

We're going to talk about what I considered to be the Bayesian crisis

that we're going through right now and what that means.

We're going to talk about the stock market, which is going up.

Who knew that stocks can go up in a crisis?

Well, they have done.

They've gone up quite a lot.

We're going to talk about why.

And of course, as ever, it seems, we're going to talk about the Fed, it's the one conversation that doesn't seem to go away,

they just came out with another $2.3 trillion, including for companies which didn't really have a lot of support

up until now, so we're going to talk about that. All that and the slate plus about Zoom coming up on slate money.

Okay the Bayesian crisis, this is what I've decided I'm calling it because I reckon that if you haven't changed your mind on something

Then you haven't really been paying attention the The Reverend Thomas Bays, I believe, was his name, who basically invented this way of looking at the world, this probabilistic way of looking at the world where you have opinions which are not

certainties they're just opinions so you can say like I believe something with

you don't necessarily need to put percentages on them but for the sake of argument let's say I believe a statement with like 90%

probability and then some new piece of information comes in which might make you more inclined to

disbelieve that statement and then the question is how much do you wait that new

...