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The Intrinsic Value Podcast - The Investor’s Podcast Network

TIVP026: The Intrinsic Value Portfolio: Mid-Year Review w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley

The Intrinsic Value Podcast - The Investor’s Podcast Network

The Investor's Podcast Network

Business, Education, Investing

4.6592 Ratings

🗓️ 29 June 2025

⏱️ 101 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Daniel and Shawn step back for a mid-year review of the Intrinsic Value Portfolio, revisiting each holding to test the strength of their original theses and weigh what’s changed. From ride-hailing to beauty retail, this episode covers the full lineup: why Uber’s cross-sell flywheel and Waymo partnership reinforce its moat; how Alphabet’s latest earnings measure up against the growing threat of AI-native search; and why Reddit may succeed where Snapchat struggled, turning engagement into monetisation. You’ll hear updates on Q1 earnings, commentary on management execution, and discussions on whether current valuations still offer upside or warrant trimming. They re-evaluate Airbnb’s evolving strategy as it expands into services and experiences, break down Ulta Beauty’s standout results, and revisit early convictions in new names like Nubank. They also debate the long-term outlook for consumer brands like Nike. Along the way, they reflect on where they’ve been right, where they’ve been early, and how to think about sizing, patience, and risk-reward in a concentrated portfolio. Prefer to watch? Click ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to watch this episode on YouTube. IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN 00:00 - Intro 03:14 - Why the Ulta Beauty position was being trimmed 17:47 - How Alphabet is holding up against AI competition 28:10 - Why Uber could benefit from autonomous vehicles 58:57 - How Airbnb overcomes regulatory hurdles and expands into experiences 1:06:17 - How Adobe used the AI revolution to strengthen its ecosystem 1:10:10 - Why Reddit might become more of a second Meta than a second Snapchat 1:20:46 - How Nike could overcome the recent headwinds 1:27:39 - Why initiating a position in Nubank is worth the risks *Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Sign Up for ⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Community.⁠⁠⁠ Ulta Beauty: Check out the Podcast and Newsletter. Alphabet: Check the Podcast & Newsletter. Airbnb: Check the Podcast & Newsletter. Adobe: Check the Podcast & Newsletter. Reddit: Check the Podcast & Newsletter. Uber: Check the Podcast & Newsletter. Nike: Check the Podcast & Newsletter. Explore our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Nintendo⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Airbnb⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠AutoZone⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Alphabet⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ulta⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠John Deere⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Madison Square Garden Sports⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Check out the books mentioned in the podcast ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Premium Feed⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. NEW TO THE SHOW? Follow our official social media accounts: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠X (Twitter)⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TikTok⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Try Shawn's favorite tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TIP Finance⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Enjoy exclusive perks from our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠favorite Apps and Services⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠best business podcasts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our ⁠⁠⁠sponsors⁠⁠⁠: • ⁠Airbnb Connect with Shawn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Email⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Connect with Daniel: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Email⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠rating and review⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠! It takes less than 30 seconds and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it!  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

Transcript

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0:00.0

And for one, you know, these are unhealthly strong business models.

0:03.5

They are asset light, they're easy to scale and with ample room for expansion.

0:08.0

And another reason is that the ones we own have come down and, you know, price and valuation a lot

0:13.7

due to concerns about the possible disruption of their business model.

0:17.6

And that's why I see the next big narrative in our portfolio alphabet Adobe and Uber all those are companies that trade at low or reasonable

0:25.7

prices because of megatrans like AI or AVs and they are supposed to have their

0:31.4

business model and for all three companies we argue as you've heard in this episode

0:35.3

that in fact they are beneficiaries of these

0:38.0

megatrends or in alphabet's case, at least not in as much danger as the market currently

0:43.7

believes.

0:49.7

Hey guys. Today we are doing a special type of episode. Rather than break down a new company and have one of us pitch it to the other like we usually do, this week we'll take some time to discuss our current portfolio and reflect on what has changed, if anything, since we first looked at those companies. So we'll give a short pitch on each company we

1:12.9

own, explain why we added the position, and discuss whether we are still convinced by the

1:19.2

opportunity. I think this will be particularly interesting for the positions that I added to the

1:24.1

portfolio before Daniel joined this show as a co-hosts and had the chance to give me pushback on those ideas.

1:31.3

So now Daniel is going to give me some feedback and tell me where I went wrong in my original thinking.

1:38.3

And jokes aside, since the show has been running for about half a year, we have covered 25 companies pretty in-depth.

1:46.1

And that's a pretty cool thing. And it just makes sense to revisit those names and provide some updates and

1:52.5

specifically pay some extra attention to the companies that we hold in our portfolio.

1:57.8

And of course, we also want to talk about the broader strategy of the portfolio

2:02.8

that we're building. How do we think about position sizing, especially as a portfolio

2:07.6

starts to fill up? And what type of investments do we want to look for? What is our investment

2:12.9

criteria? What are our expected returns? Are we looking at compounders, value plays,

...

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