TIVP025: Smith & Wesson (SWBI): Deep Value — Locked and Loaded w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley

The Intrinsic Value Podcast - The Investor’s Podcast Network

The Investor's Podcast Network

Business, Education, Investing

4.6 • 592 Ratings

🗓️ 22 June 2025

⏱️ 74 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Shawn O’Malley and Daniel Mahnke break down Smith & Wesson (ticker: SWBI), an iconic firearms manufacturer with 170+ years of history. Smith & Wesson is no compounder, though. It’s an okay business, at best, but Shawn and Daniel want to determine whether this often-overlooked stock is cheaply priced. In this episode, you’ll learn how Smith & Wesson has navigated the volatile sales cycle in firearms, what factors can drive the biggest swings in firearms sales, whether Smith & Wesson’s juicy dividend is sustainable, the biggest political and legal risks facing this company, what famous investor owns the stock, how Smith & Wesson shares can help an investor hedge societal disruptions, and whether Smith & Wesson is attractively valued on a normalized earnings basis plus so much more! Prefer to watch? Click ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to watch this episode on YouTube. IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN 00:00 - Intro 02:47 - The historic origins behind this company that predates the Civil War. 06:12 - Why “Sin” stocks can offer attractive returns from discounted valuations. 10:54 - What drives Smith & Wesson’s business. 23:17 - How the company navigates a range of factors that can impact it, from regulation to litigation, that are largely beyond its control. 35:17 - How the company’s relocation of its headquarters has added to its financial stress. 46:11 - The biggest challenges of investing in a “mean reversion” bet like Smith & Wesson. 01:01:15 - Whether Shawn & Daniel add SWBI to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio. 01:05:38 - Why Smith & Wesson may be a hedge against societal disruptions. And much, much more! *Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Sign Up for ⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Community.⁠⁠ 2022 Value Investors’ Club Pitch of Smith & Wesson. Link to Smith & Wesson’s 2024 annual filing. Chit Chat Stocks’ coverage of Smith & Wesson Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Nintendo⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Airbnb⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠AutoZone⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Alphabet⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ulta⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠John Deere⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Madison Square Garden Sports⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Check out the books mentioned in the podcast ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Premium Feed⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. NEW TO THE SHOW? Follow our official social media accounts: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠X (Twitter)⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TikTok⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Try Shawn's favorite tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TIP Finance⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Enjoy exclusive perks from our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠favorite Apps and Services⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠best business podcasts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our ⁠⁠⁠sponsors⁠⁠⁠: Airbnb Connect with Shawn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Email⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Connect with Daniel: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Email⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠rating and review⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠! It takes less than 30 seconds and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

Transcript

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0:00.0	Pistols are by far the most popular firearm in the U.S.
0:03.3	Something like 40 or 45% of gun sales every year being pistols.
0:08.7	And in that market, Smith & Wesson has the largest market share at about 20%.
0:13.4	So correspondingly, pistol sales can drive as much as 75% of their revenues.
0:19.3	But firearm sales are very cyclical. We've already alluded to that a few
0:22.5	times. So the other thing they do is that when there are falloffs and firearm demand and
0:28.0	therefore also production, they use their manufacturing capacity to support third party businesses.
0:34.0	And basically they try to keep a steady capacity at their production facilities, either by
0:39.3	producing their own products or in downtimes, offering manufacturing services to other
0:45.3	companies to better monetize their physical assets.
1:00.1	So before we get started, I want to just emphasize a recent announcement from Sean and I.
1:05.9	In case you missed it, we are launching a new private investor community devoted to intrinsic value.
1:10.3	And so we will open up 30 limited spots to the public. For context, this is a community that will be dedicated to sharing and giving feedback on investment ideas,
1:17.3	networking with like-minded investors, exploring our curiosity in the investment world,
1:22.7	and with the membership comes the opportunity to also join calls with famous experts.
1:28.0	We already had some great guests on and we have half a dozen scheduled for the coming weeks.
1:33.3	After just our first announcement in our newsletter, we already got a ton of applications,
1:38.1	even more than we thought we would.
1:39.5	So if that interests you at all, I would encourage you to head over to the investors podcast.com
1:46.1	slash intrinsic value community before all the spots fill up.
1:51.1	Again, that's the investors podcast.com slash intrinsic value community.
1:56.8	We'll also put the link in the descriptions of this episode below.
	...

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