TIP740: The Great Mental Models Part 1

We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network

Stig Brodersen

Education, Investing, Business

4.6 • 3.6K Ratings

🗓️ 27 July 2025

⏱️ 72 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

On today’s episode, Kyle Grieve discusses the power of mental models, how they sharpen our thinking, and how they improve our decision-making in investing and everyday life. He explores various key concepts in general thinking, including the circle of competence, inversion, first-principles thinking, probabilistic thinking, and more. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 02:01 - What exactly are mental models? 04:37 - The three failures people have with interacting with reality. 08:43 - A simple 6-step framework for making mentals into a habit. 17:45 - How to utilize what you already know to gain an edge. 29:40 - The importance of thinking in first principles to improve your ability to innovate and simplify. 36:10 - How to use thought experiments to analyze a business. 41:14 - Why using second-order thinking can rapidly enhance your quality of thinking. 49:46 - How probabilistic thinking helps make sense of a dynamic world. 58:54 - Why spending time thinking about a problem backwards can improve your upside. 01:04:57 - Why you should focus on simple solutions over complex ones. And so much more! Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join Clay and a select group of passionate value investors for a retreat in Big Sky, Montana. Learn more ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Join the exclusive ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TIP Mastermind Community⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Buy a copy of The Great Mental Models Vol. 1 here. Read Shane Parrish’s blog here here. Follow Kyle on ⁠X⁠ and ⁠LinkedIn⁠. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Premium Feed⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. NEW TO THE SHOW? Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Check out our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠We Study Billionaires Starter Packs⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Follow our official social media accounts: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠X (Twitter)⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TikTok⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TIP Finance Tool⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Enjoy exclusive perks from our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠favorite Apps and Services⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠best business podcasts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our ⁠⁠⁠sponsors⁠⁠⁠: ⁠⁠SimpleMining⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Hardblock⁠⁠ ⁠⁠AnchorWatch⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Onramp⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Human Rights Foundation⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Unchained⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Intuit⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Shopify⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Vanta⁠⁠ ⁠⁠reMarkable HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠rating and review⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it!⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Support our show by becoming a premium member! ⁠⁠https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

Transcript

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0:00.0	You're listening to TIP.
0:02.8	Today, we're diving into one of the most powerful tools available to great thinkers and investors
0:07.1	alike, mental models.
0:09.4	These frameworks are used to gain a deeper understanding of the world, make informed decisions,
0:13.8	and solve problems.
0:15.4	As I'll discuss, individuals who consistently make better decisions in life, business, or investing
0:20.6	are the ones who will succeed.
0:22.6	And the ones at the very top are the people with a wide variety of models that can be applied
0:26.9	quickly with clarity and discipline. In this episode, I'll walk through several timeless mental
0:32.5	models that have fundamentally shaped how I think and invest. We'll explore ideas like the map is not the territory
0:38.8	and how rigid assumptions can lead to poor outcomes. The circle of competence, why staying in your
0:43.7	lane creates such an edge. We'll look at inversion, which is the art of solving problems by
0:48.1	thinking in reverse. We'll look at probabilistic thinking and how embracing uncertainty can help
0:52.5	improve your odds and a ton more.
0:54.2	I'll also share several personal investing stories, including a few wins and some pretty painful
0:59.1	losses that I think illustrate how I've applied metal models in the real world.
1:04.2	I found metal models to be easy to give lip service to.
1:07.8	They're very handy tools and I think many people enjoy learning about them, but have a
1:11.8	much harder time implementing them into their daily thinking. I'll also go over a few strategies
1:16.9	for listeners who want to implement multidisciplinary and thinking into a daily habit.
1:22.4	This episode is for anyone who wants to improve their decision making, build better investment
1:26.0	habits, and view the world through a more transparent lens, whether you're just starting or have years of experience.
	...

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