TIP739: The Psychology Of Human Misjudgement

We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network

Stig Brodersen

Education, Investing, Business

4.6 • 3.6K Ratings

🗓️ 25 July 2025

⏱️ 66 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

On today’s episode, Kyle Grieve discusses Charlie Munger’s legendary speech, The Psychology of Human Misjudgment, and unpacks all 25 of his cognitive biases that often lead even the most intelligent people to make poor decisions. Drawing from Poor Charlie’s Almanack, Kyle explores how these psychological tendencies—like incentive-caused bias, social proof, and inconsistency avoidance—can distort our thinking in business, investing, and everyday life. He blends Munger’s timeless wisdom with real-world investing examples, personal experiences, and practical strategies to help listeners make better, more rational decisions. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 03:02 - Why incentives quietly override moral behavior. 06:32 - Why liking and disliking an investing thesis can distort reality. 09:54 - Why doubt avoidance cause investors to take significant risks in things like IPOs. 12:07 - How inconsistency avoidance causes a lazy creep into our thinking processes. 24:38 - How to avoid the destructive effects of reciprocation. 32:49 - The dangers of overestimating our abilities. 37:44 - Why jumping off a sinking ship beats trying to patch it up. 45:58 - Why contrasting stock prices in exuberant markets evaporates margins of safety. 59:41 - Why investors should choose simplicity > complexity. 01:01:43 - Why you should search for Lollapalooza effects in business. And so much more! Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join Clay and a select group of passionate value investors for a retreat in Big Sky, Montana. Learn more ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Join the exclusive ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TIP Mastermind Community⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Buy a copy of Poor Charlie’s Almanack here. Read about Charlie’s Psychology of Human Misjudgement here. Watch Charlie’s presentation on The Psychology of Human Misjudgement here. Follow Kyle on X and LinkedIn. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Premium Feed⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. NEW TO THE SHOW? Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Check out our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠We Study Billionaires Starter Packs⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Follow our official social media accounts: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠X (Twitter)⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TikTok⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TIP Finance Tool⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Enjoy exclusive perks from our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠favorite Apps and Services⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠best business podcasts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our ⁠⁠sponsors⁠⁠: ⁠SimpleMining⁠ ⁠Hardblock⁠ ⁠AnchorWatch⁠ ⁠Onramp⁠ ⁠Human Rights Foundation⁠ ⁠Unchained⁠ ⁠Intuit⁠ ⁠Shopify⁠ ⁠Vanta⁠ ⁠reMarkable HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠rating and review⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it!⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Support our show by becoming a premium member! ⁠⁠https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

Transcript

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0:00.0	You're listening to TIP.
0:03.0	Charlie Munger wasn't just Warren Buffett's partner.
0:05.7	He was a towering intellect who profoundly influenced how countless people think about decision-making, investing, and life.
0:12.6	While he's primarily known for helping to build Berkshire Hathaway into the giant that it is today,
0:17.2	I think Charlie's real legacy was his clarity of thought, which was portrayed exquisitely
0:21.7	in one speech he gave titled, The Psychology of Human Mischjudgment.
0:25.6	In this episode, we're looking at one of Charlie's greatest contributions to the world,
0:29.8	a framework for understanding the psychological traps that lead otherwise smart and successful
0:34.2	people to make dumb decisions.
0:36.5	We'll unpack all 25 of his tendencies,
0:38.9	starting with how incentives shape behavior, often more powerfully than we even realize,
0:44.3	and how misaligned incentives can create disastrous outcomes. We'll look at how our affection
0:49.4	for a company, products, or even a person can blind us to incredibly obvious facts and why emotional
0:55.8	attachment can be very, very dangerous.
0:58.5	We'll also look at why our brains crave certainty and consistency, even when staying flexible
1:03.4	and open-minded would serve us much better.
1:06.3	Then we'll transition and look at the powerful pull of the crowd and why investors must
1:09.8	learn to stand apart from the herd. And lastly, we're going to look at probably powerful pull of the crowd and why investors must learn to stand
1:10.8	apart from the herd. And lastly, we're going to look at probably one of my favorite tendencies,
1:14.7	which is when multiple biases combined to produce extreme outcomes that can cause massive successes
1:20.0	or crushing busts. Now, Charlie truly believed that avoiding stupidity was more critical
1:25.9	than seeking cleverness. And by understanding how
	...

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