Thursday - November 13, 2025
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 13 November 2025
⏱️ 8 minutes
🔗️ Recording | Apple Podcasts | RSS
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Summary
Market Downturn and Fed Uncertainty: Analyzing the Financial Trends
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the significant downturn in both stocks and bonds on November 13th, with major indices and the 10-year yield showing notable movements. Brian analyzes the influence of hawkish comments from multiple Federal Reserve speakers and the implications of the recent government shutdown's end on market behavior. He also touches on the rotation from growth to value stocks, the potential impacts of tax refunds, and the importance of investing in intrinsic value. Additionally, Brian addresses concerns about AI fakes and stock market manipulation, reassuring that despite the presence of bad actors, the market remains investible and efficient.
00:00 Market Overview: A Down Day
00:33 Federal Reserve's Hawkish Stance
01:24 Government Shutdown and Market Reaction
02:24 Rotation from Growth to Value
03:39 Tax Policy and Economic Stimulus
04:50 AI Fakes and Market Efficiency
05:46 Conclusion and Viewer Engagement
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:10.0 | Welcome in the Dividend Cafe this Thursday, November the 13th, Brian Saitel with you here. |
| 0:17.0 | On a down day across the board in the market both in stocks and bonds it's actually |
| 0:23.2 | a largest drawdown in about a month we got the Dow down just a hair under 800 points so |
| 0:29.9 | 797 points which is about 1.65 percent smp was down in percentage terms same. Nasdaq was down more at 2 and a quarter |
| 0:40.1 | in percentage terms. And the 10 year was up five basis points at 412. So what happened? Rates went up here |
| 0:46.4 | a little bit on the day. Most of that was because there were five, counted five different Fed |
| 0:51.7 | speakers today, all of which had more of a hawkish lean in their comments, |
| 0:56.7 | citing inflation as more of a concern than anything else. And so they were going to be slow to look |
| 1:02.6 | at more rate cuts. That said, just like Powell said in his last press conference, when you're |
| 1:08.2 | driving in the fog, you slow down. And that makes intuitive sense. |
| 1:12.2 | I've driven in the fog growing up in Bakersfield, California, many times. And I always slowed down. |
| 1:18.1 | There is a dearth of data right now. So that's what they're talking about as the fog. The fog is just a |
| 1:24.1 | lack of clarity around the BLS numbers, around job lists, around the CPI print. |
| 1:29.3 | Both of those things, by the way, we were supposed to get today. |
| 1:32.8 | And technically, the government did reopen as of today. |
| 1:36.4 | So Trump signed the bill that passed through the House last night. |
| 1:40.8 | It was 222 to 209. |
| 1:43.5 | So even that to open the government again wasn't just but a slim majority |
| 1:47.5 | that was able to get it done. But the government reopened. And so we were hoping we'd get CPI and |
| 1:53.4 | some employment data, but of course now we won't and it's delayed. And so the Fed is in a fog. And |
| 1:58.0 | in the fog, they're going to say they're going to take their time. |
... |
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