Thursday - April 10, 2025
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 10 April 2025
⏱️ 10 minutes
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Summary
Market Volatility and Trade Tensions: April 10 Edition of Dividend Cafe
In the April 10th episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the market's volatility following a historic rally and subsequent downturn driven by increased US tariffs on China. Topics include fluctuating VIX levels, deflation in CPI, positive movement on tax bills, rising bond yields, and widening high yield credit spreads. Szytel also addresses key questions regarding the impact of tariffs on the Chinese yuan, recession indicators, and the importance of sticking to long-term investment strategies despite market turbulence.
00:00 Introduction and Market Recap
00:24 Impact of Tariffs on US-China Trade
00:37 Volatility and Economic Indicators
02:01 Bond Market and Credit Spreads
02:57 Recession Concerns and Jobless Claims
03:44 US-China Trade Imbalance
06:09 Investment Strategy and Long-Term Planning
08:09 Conclusion and Upcoming Content
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.0 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Thursday, April the 10th. Brian Zytel with you here. |
| 0:19.0 | On a give back day from yesterday's historic rally, where the Dow was almost up 3,000 points, |
| 0:24.6 | we did give some of that back today and largely around an enhancement of a tariff amount the U.S. is going to attribute to China instead of 125 going to 145%. |
| 0:36.6 | So that is ongoing. |
| 0:38.9 | There's a 90-day pause on all the other countries to negotiate and to get to a final trade deal. |
| 0:44.0 | But the China-U.S. relation, at least on trade, continues to deteriorate. |
| 0:48.8 | So that caused some more volatility. |
| 0:50.4 | Yesterday we had the VIX go from 57 down to 35. Today we were all the way back |
| 0:55.4 | up to 47. So volatility is still here. And it will be, frankly, this isn't behind us yet. |
| 1:01.1 | And keep in mind, today's economic numbers on both inflation, CPI actually deflated versus a gain |
| 1:07.4 | of 0.1. It was down 1 tenth of a percent. So that was good inflation data, |
| 1:12.0 | and we also had some positive movement in the house. These things need to get worked out, |
| 1:17.2 | but there was some positive movement in the house around a potential tax bill and reconciliation |
| 1:21.9 | in getting that process going to hopefully offset or to sterilize some of the impact of tariffs, which is essentially |
| 1:28.8 | a very large tax increase on the American consumer. All that to say markets were down. We gave up |
| 1:34.2 | another thousand points on the Dow. So if we were up, call it three yesterday. We lost one today. |
| 1:38.9 | So we're still higher. And I still think that Trump put was put back on the table as it exists. And I was asked about that |
| 1:47.3 | on CNBC, actually, not see a long ago. I did think there's a threshold in which that administration |
| 1:52.7 | will give, at least to some degree, softer tone, openness to negotiate more readily, |
| 1:58.3 | things like that. And I think that's what you saw yesterday. So the fact |
| 2:01.9 | that market sold off again today, the action the last two days, it's hard for me to call it positive. |
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