Theories Are Explanations, Not Predictions
Naval
Naval Ravikant
4.8 • 2.4K Ratings
🗓️ 3 May 2021
⏱️ 3 minutes
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| 0:00.0 | There's another example from science like this. |
| 0:02.5 | On a heat source, put a beaker of water. |
| 0:05.6 | Then put a thermometer into that water |
| 0:07.2 | and turn on your heat source. |
| 0:09.1 | Then record as the time passes, |
| 0:12.1 | what the temperature of the water is. |
| 0:14.4 | You will notice that the temperature of the water will increase. |
| 0:17.1 | You can do this with a source pan at home. |
| 0:19.0 | So long as the heat source is relatively constant, |
| 0:21.6 | the temperature rise will be relatively constant as well. |
| 0:24.9 | So after one minute, the temperature might go |
| 0:27.4 | from 20 degrees Celsius to 30 degrees Celsius. |
| 0:30.1 | Imagine every minute climbs by another 10 degrees Celsius. |
| 0:33.6 | But at some point it's going to stall. |
| 0:35.0 | When it hits the boiling point. |
| 0:36.2 | Precisely. |
| 0:36.8 | Now, if you're a thoroughgoing inductive us, |
| 0:39.7 | or even a Bayesian reasoner, and you don't know anything |
| 0:42.8 | about the boiling temperature and what phenomena happens |
| 0:45.3 | at that temperature, you can join all of those lovely lines |
| 0:48.6 | into a perfectly diagonal straight line |
| 0:50.8 | and extrapolate off into infinity. |
... |
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