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Naval

Make Bold Guesses and Weed Out Failures

Naval

Naval Ravikant

Business, Technology

4.82.4K Ratings

🗓️ 5 May 2021

⏱️ 2 minutes

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Transcript http://nav.al/failures

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0:00.0

Going even further, it's not just science.

0:01.8

When we look at innovation and technology and building,

0:05.0

for example, everything that Thomas Edison did

0:07.2

and Nicola Tesla did, these were from trial and error,

0:10.0

which is creative guesses and trying things out.

0:12.7

If you look at how evolution works through variation

0:14.8

and then natural selection, where it tries a lot

0:17.0

of random mutations and it filters out the ones

0:19.0

that didn't work.

0:20.1

So this seems to be a general model

0:23.2

through which all complex systems improve themselves

0:26.4

over time.

0:27.5

They make bold guesses and then they weed out

0:29.8

the things that didn't work.

0:31.2

Things like a beautiful symmetry to it

0:33.0

across all knowledge creation.

0:34.9

It's ultimately an act of creativity.

0:37.2

We don't know where it comes from

0:38.5

and it's not just a mechanical extrapolation

0:40.5

of observations.

0:41.9

The most famous example on this,

0:43.4

we mentioned black swans, we talked about boiling water,

...

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