The WAR Is OVER??? To The Moon
Money Tree Investing
Money Tree Investing Podcast
4.6 • 733 Ratings
🗓️ 22 April 2026
⏱️ 51 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
The war is over? Next we were off to the moon! Today we talk geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their impact on global markets. Markets have reacted optimistically despite underlying economic realities such as rising inflation, delayed energy shocks, and weakening global growth that have yet to fully materialize. Market movements are currently driven more by sentiment and positioning than fundamentals, with unusual sector reversals and shifting correlations adding to the complexity. Patience and caution are always the most important thing: markets are overstretched, earnings reactions matter more than the results themselves, and delayed economic impacts are likely to surface in coming months, meaning investors should focus on how markets respond to new information rather than blindly chasing momentum.
We discuss...
- Reports of a ceasefire and the Strait of Hormuz reopening have boosted market optimism, though confirmation remains unclear.
- Markets have rallied sharply, pricing in a best-case scenario despite limited improvement in underlying fundamentals.
- Energy markets remain volatile, with oil shocks expected to impact the global economy with a delayed effect.
- Emerging markets are facing greater strain due to reliance on energy imports and policy responses like subsidies and rationing.
- Inflation pressures are rising again, driven largely by energy costs and sector-specific factors.
- Global growth expectations are being revised lower, with downside risks increasing amid geopolitical uncertainty.
- Market behavior has shifted from fear-driven to misaligned, where optimism is outpacing economic reality.
- Sector performance has flipped compared to pre-war trends, with previous leaders now lagging and vice versa.
- Correlations between asset classes have tightened, reflecting stress and leverage in the system rather than normal rotation.
- The market is acting as a forward-looking mechanism, already pricing in expected future disruptions.
- Earnings season should be evaluated based on market reaction rather than headline results.
- Delayed economic impacts, especially from energy supply chains, are expected to show up in future quarters.
- Labor market data shows cooling job and wage growth, adding pressure alongside rising costs.
- Consumer spending is slowing, which could weigh on corporate profits moving forward.
- Rapid market gains have created overbought conditions, increasing the risk of consolidation or pullback.
- Investor positioning and short-covering have contributed to the recent rally.
- Caution is advised against chasing momentum, particularly in an overstretched market.
- Market conditions remain messy and difficult to interpret, with few clear trends emerging.
Today's Panelists:
Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors
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For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/the-war-is-over-809
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Money Tree Investing podcast. Stock market, wealth, personal finance, value stocks, invest in your life. |
| 0:11.9 | Hello, Smart Money Tree podcast listeners. Welcome to this week's show. My name's Kirk Chisholm. |
| 0:15.5 | I'll be your host. And today I'm joining with Doug Hagerin. Hey, Doug. |
| 0:18.5 | How you doing, Kirk? Are you feeling good again? Everything's good. Everything's behind us. It was all, matter of fact, it was all just a simulation. There was a flip in the Matrix. I don't know if you saw a black cat repeat itself. You remember that. If you see a black cat flip twice, it means they reprogram the universe. I did. I did see that. |
| 0:38.1 | I saw war in the Middle East twice. There you go. Obviously, somebody was reprograming the Matrix, so you're going to have to find a new exit. Yeah. I mean, we bombed the nuclear plant and tried to get rid of it, and everything was great. A few weeks later, we went to war. So, yeah, that's the Matrix. For all those of you tune in live, this is done Friday. |
| 0:57.4 | Apparently, we went to war. So yeah, that's the matrix. For all those of you tuned in live, this is done |
| 0:56.2 | Friday. Apparently, the war is over, which fron's into purposes. I'm not sure if it is, but the |
| 1:03.4 | Strait of Hormuz is open, as far as we know, which means that global traffic will be coming |
| 1:10.0 | in and out of Strait of Hormuz now, we think. |
| 1:13.6 | But given the fact that the propaganda and the news coming out of the Middle East has been |
| 1:19.5 | sketchy at best, I'm going to reserve my thoughts till we're a little bit further down the line. |
| 1:25.8 | However, the market seemed to agree and seem to like it. So most likely it's the case. But, you know, we've been hearing a lot of things up till now that have not necessarily been true, which we've talked about on the show as to how that the fog of war is typically inaccurate. So the way the market's treating it, it seems like everything's fine, all clear, straight-off moves is open, which is great. It's great for the rest of the world. It doesn't really impact us very much because the things that flow through there, mostly we don't need, some things we do, but most of it we don't need. The rest of the world needs it. LNG and oil and things like that are really important. There's a lot of countries that have been having issues. |
| 2:02.2 | And just to put things in context, |
| 2:03.5 | so I was listening to a great podcast earlier this week, |
| 2:05.8 | and they were getting into more of the nitty-gritty detail of this, |
| 2:08.9 | which I didn't know. |
| 2:10.3 | The interesting part is it takes about six weeks for the tankers to get to where they're going. |
| 2:16.5 | So this week or next is when the oil shock |
| 2:20.0 | really actually hits. We're still going to have six weeks of this for a lot of countries, |
| 2:25.7 | and a lot of countries have actually struggled. And I think we talked about this last time, |
| 2:30.9 | but there are a bunch of countries from the Philippines to India to South Korea and Egypt to Malaysia. And they've all taken different tax as to how to handle the fuel |
| 2:39.4 | crisis. Some are doing subsidies, some are rationing, some have price caps or controls, demand |
... |
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