The Three Most Important Words We're Taught Not to Say
The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens
Nate Hagens
4.8 • 549 Ratings
🗓️ 24 October 2025
⏱️ 27 minutes
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Summary
In this week's Frankly, Nate considers the ways in which our social species overvalues false-confidence rather than the more honest and inquisitive response of "I don't know." He invites us to consider the science behind this cultural bias towards certainty: from our biological response from the stress of "not knowing" to the reinforcing effects of motivated reasoning that ensnares even the smartest among us (especially the smartest among us).
Overconfidence and the desire for quick answers have been the root cause of many of humanity's disasters, from the space shuttle Challenger explosion to the Deep Water Horizon oil spill to the subprime housing bubble. And now, the exponential growth and integration of Artificial Intelligence is hyper-fueling this risk, as AI mirrors the human aversion to uncertainty through "hallucinations". As some AI companies are now considering penalizing over-confident answers in favor of "I don't know", perhaps humans could learn to do the same for ourselves.
How often do you say. "I don't know"? In what ways do we lose opportunities for conversation and exploration by not admitting our own uncertainties? Can listening to our own gut for "truth" and embracing intentional Red Team dissent shift "I don't know" from weakness to wisdom?
(Recorded October 17th, 2025)
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Good morning. As a podcast host, there is one answer that I love to hear when I ask my guests a question, but I rarely ever do. To me, this answer is a signal of maturity and nuance and honesty. And it's not trying to give an answer to all the world's problems. That answer is, I don't know. Why is hearing, |
| 0:24.9 | I don't know, so refreshing to me, and I'm guessing to many of you, which is why I'm doing |
| 0:30.3 | this frankly, we are all members of a social species in a modern culture that's turbocharged |
| 0:35.5 | by energy surplus and social technology. |
| 0:39.3 | But in this modern setting, we still seek status and respect a product of our evolutionary |
| 0:47.3 | wiring. |
| 0:48.3 | And because of this, in most public settings in today's society, including and especially the media, we value, and I would argue, overvalue, |
| 0:58.0 | confidence, bravado, and certainty. |
| 1:02.0 | So saying, I don't know is now seen as a sign of weakness, not of wisdom. |
| 1:08.0 | So when you hear it in a public setting, it's like an antidote to our cultural |
| 1:13.4 | consensus trance. And I'm beginning to think that the reluctance to express I don't know, |
| 1:20.9 | or its equivalent, out loud, is a fatal flaw in our culture as we begin to discuss our vastly complex and risky and rapidly |
| 1:31.3 | approaching future. And so today I'd like to unpack this a bit. So back in the day, 25 years ago, no longer ago than that. |
| 1:51.0 | 25 years ago is when I left. |
| 1:53.0 | When I started at Solomon Brothers in 1992, so over 30 years ago, |
| 2:00.0 | Solomon Brothers was one of the coolest places on Wall Street. |
| 2:03.2 | And in the training program, which was much revered and respected, they kicked our asses. |
| 2:11.6 | And a lot of times they would ask you a question about simple bond math, like what's the duration of a 30-year note. And then they would ask you a little bit harder question. What's the ticker symbol of some stock? And then they would ask you a really hard question. And after you answered the first two questions, like, yeah, I know that. It's Yahoo, Y-H-O-O or whatever. Then they would ask you a question that you weren't supposed to be able to ask. |
| 2:37.0 | And what ended up happening, especially as we wanted to impress our bosses, we would make |
| 2:42.0 | something up, our guess. |
| 2:43.9 | And they would come down on us so hard like, no, what you were supposed to say as eventual sales people who would be talking to |
| 2:53.2 | billionaires and institutional managers is, I don't know, but I will find out and get back |
... |
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