The "stuck economy," tariffs and Wall Street
Marketplace All-in-One
Marketplace
4.5 • 1.4K Ratings
🗓️ 30 September 2025
⏱️ 25 minutes
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Summary
While the stock market appears unconcerned about potential red flags in this economy, the bond market's a bit more cautious. As Washington nears a shutdown and the labor market flags, Treasury yields are ticking down. But demand for those safer, long-term bonds hasn’t been uniform. Plus: Trump adds to existing tariffs on Canadian lumber, OpenAI wades into e-commerce waters, and Abha Bhattarai at the Washington Post talks about the “stuck economy.”
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | The job market could make or break the economy right now. |
| 0:05.0 | So how are we supposed to figure out what's going on if there is no jobs data? |
| 0:11.0 | From American Public Media, this is Marketplace. In New York, I'm Kristen Schwab and for Kyrisdal. It's Tuesday, September 30th. Good to have you along. |
| 0:28.6 | This is supposed to be a big week for jobs data. I say supposed to because as of this broadcast, the government is heading toward a shutdown. If Congress |
| 0:39.9 | and the president don't make a deal by midnight, all non-essential operations will pause. That |
| 0:45.9 | means thousands of federal workers will be furloughed, including the people at the Bureau of Labor |
| 0:51.3 | Statistics who work on the monthly jobs report that's scheduled to come out |
| 0:55.3 | this Friday. No workers means no job report. To talk about what all this means, we called up |
| 1:01.9 | Martha Gimble. She's the executive director of the Budget Lab at Yale. Martha, thanks for being here. |
| 1:07.8 | Thanks so much for having me. So before we get to everything I just talked about with Friday |
| 1:13.1 | Jobs Report, let's talk about some labor market we do have data we do have that we got today, |
| 1:19.0 | the job openings and labor turnover survey for August. What did you make of it? So the thing that we |
| 1:25.6 | saw from that survey, which we like to call jolts, is a real slowdown in hiring. |
| 1:33.2 | There's not a huge amount of firing that's going on in this labor market right now. |
| 1:37.3 | So if you've got a job and you're holding onto it, you're an okay shape. |
| 1:41.3 | But hiring is now at on average levels that's more consistent with what we saw in |
| 1:47.7 | 2010, 2011. Those were not years that people think of as being a great time to find a job. |
| 1:56.9 | So what does that tell you about what the economic outlook looks like? |
| 2:02.8 | You know, I think the thing that is a little bit scary at this exact moment is the labor market's been holding on because we haven't had a huge amount of firing. |
| 2:13.1 | You know, so job growth comes from both people not being fired, but also from people being hired. |
| 2:19.6 | In a low, higher environment, if things turn and employers give up and start firing people, |
| 2:25.9 | we could see a rapid deterioration in the labor market. |
... |
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