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I'm your host, Greg Sargent.

You've probably encountered the work of democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg.

He regularly declares that we shouldn't freak out about polling averages showing Donald Trump

ahead, in part because the state of the Democratic Party is strong and that has been winning a lot of elections lately.

You've surely heard him say that on Twitter, on TV, or on his

Hopium Chronicle substack. But we're going to focus on another less appreciated aspect of Rosenberg's

analysis. It's the idea that people who do politics for a living know, or should know, that Trump's

pile up of negatives is probably insurmountable. The thought here is that

people who make political ads and run campaigns know what can be done with negatives this bad,

and that it's only a matter of time until that happens against Trump. This may explain why the

Biden team is quietly confident right now in the face of all the adverse polling.

So we invited Rosenberg on the show to dig into this theory of the case. Welcome, Simon.

It's great to be here, Greg. Simon, let's start here. You got it right in 2022 by predicting that the

much-Ballyhooed red wave wouldn't materialize. Now you're making a similar case.

Can you recap that for us? Yeah, I mean, I think the simple way to look at it is that in 2022,

...