The Risk Report for 2026

Why It Matters

Council on Foreign Relations

News

4.2 • 876 Ratings

🗓️ 18 December 2025

⏱️ 33 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

As 2025 draws to a close, U.S. foreign policy stands at an inflection point. Under the second Trump administration, traditional alliances have been tested, a hard-edged national security strategy has been rolled out, and for the first time, CFR’s annual Preventive Priorities Survey has ranked a military conflict with Venezuela as a top threat facing the U.S. in 2026. Whether these and other flashpoints erupt next year will hinge on how world leaders manage mounting pressures, both at home and abroad. Read the full 2026 Preventive Priorities Survey. Featured Guest: Paul B. Stares (General John W. Vessey Senior Fellow for Conflict Prevention and Director of the Center for Preventive Action) Why It Matters is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

Transcript

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0:00.0	Hi, Paul.
0:01.3	Hey, Gabrielle.
0:02.6	It's so nice to have you back on Why It Matters.
0:06.7	Feel the same way.
0:07.9	Always a pleasure to join you at this time of the year.
0:11.0	And congratulations on your new baby.
0:13.5	Oh, thank you.
0:14.9	Yeah, for our listeners, I just had my first baby.
0:18.9	And yes, I adore him and have completely forgotten what sleep is.
0:26.6	Hi, everyone. We are back in the studio recording a whole slate of episodes that will be coming to you in the new year.
0:34.7	But we couldn't leave you hanging as this year comes to a close. And as you well
0:39.1	know, a lot has happened. 2025 saw a complete reordering of U.S. foreign policy. Since the second
0:48.2	Trump administration took its place in the White House, there has been a pivot away from traditional
0:52.9	alliances, renewed military
0:55.0	intervention in the Middle East and Caribbean, and the implementation of a revamped national
1:00.4	security strategy that raises questions about whether Washington will continue to play a lead
1:05.8	role in mitigating global conflict. Looking ahead to 2006, evolving global concerns are likely to play a defining
1:13.3	role in U.S. foreign policy decisions. And so before the new year begins, we're going to close
1:18.7	out 2025 with a fan favorite guest and topic, our Conflicts Prevention Fellow, Paul Stairs,
1:25.5	discussing CFR's Preventive Priorities Survey, which clues us all
1:30.6	into the top concerns foreign policy experts see on the horizon.
1:35.7	I'm Gabrielle Sierra, and this is why it matters.
	...

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