The Right Question to Ask in the Prediction Business
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 18 February 2022
⏱️ 16 minutes
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Summary
There was plenty of talk about Russia/Ukraine in DC Today this week as well in the unreliable news cycle, and there really isn’t any “new news” to report. I am not sure we will be talking about Russia/Ukraine in six months, but I am very sure we will be talking about inflation, the Fed, and interest rates in six months. I want to do my best to make those six months (and more) of conversations be as worthwhile as possible.
The Dividend Cafe is here to help that effort.
We are going to look at what some of the right questions are to ask today and let it go from there. I believe this discussion will give you some better information then you might find elsewhere, but it also puts me out on a limb with some actual forecasts. The very concept of forecasting bothers me, usually because those who do it are charlatans and grifters. But I have nothing to gain in these forecasts; rather I am trying to point us towards a context and understanding that will likely not prove exactly right in the details, but I think more helpful than thinking about 2021’s battles during 2023’s war.
Jump on in to the Dividend Cafe …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:10.0 | Well, hello and welcome to another week of the Dividend Cafe, getting ready to go into a little holiday weekend. |
| 0:20.0 | I am sitting in the New York office, |
| 0:24.5 | where I will tell you, it's been very odd weather this week. We had several 12 degree |
| 0:31.5 | mornings and then all of a sudden it got like up into the 60s and felt like it was 80. So it's interesting to see the kind of weather shifts. |
| 0:41.7 | But nevertheless, this is what happens this time of year in the winters of New York. |
| 0:47.9 | And I believe that things have been kind of the opposite in my other coast where last week Southern |
| 0:55.7 | California was having a dramatic heat wave. So we have up and down weather conditions and we |
| 1:03.8 | continue to have up and down market conditions. But I am going to save you the boredom of talking |
| 1:09.2 | more and more about volatility. And actually, it's probably not boredom, but I'm also going to save you the boredom of talking more and more about volatility. |
| 1:11.9 | And actually, it's probably not boredom, but I'm also going to save you from yet another conversation about Russia, Ukraine, where it's been discussed each day in the DC Today, our daily market bulletin, which I hope all of you subscribe to, theDC today.com, for those who don't. |
| 1:30.9 | And it's obviously being discussed at nauseam in the press. |
| 1:35.4 | Now, look, the bullet points that I offer on the subject each day with market specificity |
| 1:41.3 | and implication hopefully aren't boring, but regardless, they're at least, |
| 1:46.3 | I can promise you, accurate and shared in good faith and coming from a perspective of trying |
| 1:52.4 | to give honest commentary for the purpose of understanding and clarity and market application, |
| 1:59.9 | where a lot of the information I think that you may get |
| 2:02.6 | in other sources, some of it may be right. I wouldn't take that for granted, but it could be. |
| 2:08.9 | But, you know, it's, it's, there's agenda and why it's being shared. And, and so we're here |
| 2:13.3 | to try to be neutral, uh, presenters of information and yet not neutral in where we apply, |
| 2:21.6 | you know, how we have a point of view as to how we believe investment perspective ought to be |
| 2:25.9 | carried out on behalf of clients' financial goals. So the Russia-Ukraine thing continues, but |
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