The Fog of War
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 25 February 2022
⏱️ 11 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
I have pretty much written each Friday’s Dividend Cafe on the Friday morning of the day you receive it every single week for over a year now. If there is an exception to that over the last 12+ months I do not remember it. I used to write the Dividend Cafe in bits and pieces throughout the week and then “pull it all together” on Friday mornings, but a little over a year ago I changed my approach and I have been happy with the results.
Well, this week taking advantage of the Monday holiday and some extra peace and quiet in the very early morning hours of a day that the market was closed, I wrote what would maybe be half of a Dividend Cafe on the subject of capital, liquidity, and interest rates. I loved where it was going and felt it was a good base for a needed Dividend Cafe on a crucial subject at this point in time.
And yet, here I am on a Friday morning, with images of Russian rockets striking all over the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv on my television set, and I am not even opening the draft of that work from Monday morning. Yes, I will be able to use it next week (or at some future date), but this is certainly one of those rare weeks where Dividend Cafe warrants a nod to current events.
Markets have experienced volatility in the build-up to events of this week and in the events themselves, though I would argue it has been much less volatile than I would have expected. The mere presence of market volatility is not the reason to devote a Dividend Cafe to this week’s subject. I don’t much care about market volatility other than the frustration I feel when we don’t get enough of it.
So welcome to a Dividend Cafe devoted to Russia/Ukraine, and may your investor knowledge and appreciation of global affairs grow as a result. To that end we work.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.9 | Well, hello and welcome to a very special dividend cafe. I am actually recording at my apartment here in the city very early on Friday morning |
| 0:22.9 | and not doing it in the studio at the office because I'm running from here to another place to |
| 0:28.2 | another place. And this morning ended up riding a full dividend cafe on the whole situation |
| 0:36.7 | with Russia and Ukraine, as you can imagine. |
| 0:40.2 | I actually had pre-written about half of a dividend cafe for the first time in over a year |
| 0:48.1 | that I came into a Friday morning with some dividend cafe already done. |
| 0:53.0 | But the topic can wait till next week, as obviously |
| 0:57.9 | the fog of war has become a more significant factor. I can't really tell you where the market's |
| 1:06.5 | going to end on the week. I started writing at 4 o'clock this morning, Eastern time, and futures |
| 1:10.7 | were down 300 points. I'm writing at 4 o'clock this morning Eastern time and futures were down |
| 1:11.2 | 300 points. I'm recording right now a few hours later and futures are up 75 points. But just if you look |
| 1:21.4 | at it from where the week opened to where we were as of the last moment the market was open because I'm still talking within |
| 1:30.2 | a pre-market Friday timeframe. The Dow's down about 850 points on the week, about 2.5%. |
| 1:38.9 | Total from the all-time high of the Dow going back to earlier in the year, the Dow is down about 8%. |
| 1:45.5 | So, you know, if the Dow were down 8% right now and there was nothing going on in Russia, Ukraine, |
| 1:52.0 | it really wouldn't be particularly newsworthy. The Dow still hasn't even got to a 10% correction. |
| 2:00.0 | Now, again, the NASDAQ is down about 17% and the S&P. |
| 2:04.1 | Also, more tech heavy, has gotten down about 12%. So, but again, that's clearly not related to the |
| 2:11.6 | Russia-Ukraine situation per se as there's more excess valuations and froth that have gotten taken out of some of the |
| 2:20.0 | shiny object investing, all stuff we've talked about all year long. |
| 2:24.1 | The Russia-Ukraine situation is absolutely exacerbated market volatility, and I have no reason |
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