The Redistricting Twist No One Saw Coming (w/ Dave Wasserman)
Bulwark Takes
The Bulwark
4.7 • 1.2K Ratings
🗓️ 12 November 2025
⏱️ 22 minutes
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| 0:00.0 | Hey, everybody. It's Tim Miller from the bulwark. I am here with the senior editor and elections analyst at Cook Political Report. |
| 0:07.0 | Also a super nerd when it comes to redistricting and House districts and math and political math. |
| 0:14.6 | And I wanted to bring them on here because there's been a ton of stuff happening in redistricting. |
| 0:20.2 | And in a rare case of like Democrats |
| 0:23.1 | fighting and winning recently, like the Democrats have clawed back a lot of ground on this |
| 0:28.7 | mid-decade redistricting cycle with the recent news out this morning about a court win in Utah |
| 0:34.7 | that is going to give Salt Lake City a congressional seat for the first time |
| 0:40.0 | in a while, really. So Dave, you cited, well, actually, before we get into the states, why |
| 0:45.7 | you just give us kind of a global, like, state of play? Like, you know, where we were last year, |
| 0:50.2 | and then Texas, you know, makes the first move and kind of how things, how things stand. |
| 0:55.1 | Republicans in the White House would not be pursuing a mid-decade redistricting war if they felt |
| 1:00.0 | great about their chances of holding the House to begin with in 2026. And Democrats only need |
| 1:06.3 | three seats from their current vantage point. There are 215 seats effectively. And so Republicans want to |
| 1:13.8 | sandbag this and add some insurance policy against a blue wave. Now, the historical average in the |
| 1:20.5 | post-war era is that the President's Party loses 23 seats in midterms. But I think the old rules |
| 1:26.3 | might not apply anymore given the evisceration of |
| 1:30.8 | competitive districts, not just from gerrymandering in recent years, but also the self-sorting |
| 1:36.9 | of the American electorate into heavily red and blue places, which leaves a lot less purple turf |
| 1:42.8 | to draw into competitive seats. So Democrats, you know, |
| 1:48.8 | are contending with a small playing field of races to begin with, and Republicans are trying to |
| 1:55.9 | keep away. And even with the Texas redraw, Democrats had a chance, now they've strung together a surprising |
| 2:05.6 | string of victories. We have self-gerrymandered a lot. I like to bring that up a lot of times at the |
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