Hello and welcome to the 538 Politics Podcast. I'm Galen Druke. I'm Nate Silver. And this is

Model Talk. I know we had a Model Talk in the middle of the night. I know. This is very much

an impromptu Model Talk as folks who are watching on YouTube can probably tell we just pulled

you off air. So this is actually going to be a very abbreviated podcast because you're going

to have to go back on ABC to explain what's going on to the nation. So I'm glad we could pull you

away, but we have a lot to discuss and not all that much time to do it. Characterize the night so far,

Nate Silver. This is a night where you are similar between a very good night for the posters and a

polling error favoring Democrats or an anti-democratic polling bias, right? Democrats in the house

have flipped three seats so far that we classified as likely Republicans, so more than a 75% chance.

It looks like they are going to win this toss-up race in Pennsylvania in the Senate. They have held

their own Senate seats so far. They've held most though not all of the house seats where they

were favored. So like they're having a pretty good night. It's also a pretty good night for the

polls, but you know this is like in the thick part of the distribution people like oh my god,

this is so crazy. Now if Democrats do really well out west and keep the house, then that's

more unlikely, but not crazy unlikely. So let me just lay down some markers. It is currently 12-38

at the time that we are recording this podcast and we have had calls in New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio,

a bunch of the states that we sort of like expected would lean one way or the other. The places

where we don't have calls are importantly Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and that's kind of

where the big- and Wisconsin. And that's kind of where the game is for the Senate, and that's where

the game has been all along. Yeah, I mean in some ways this is kind of like the course,

you know, you always expect to where it comes down to Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Georgia. Wisconsin

and Arizona have some chance of affecting things, but are a little bit more marginal. You would

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