The Presidential Race Is in Uncharted Territory, but It’s Clear Who’s Winning

The New Yorker Radio Hour

WNYC Studios and The New Yorker

News, David, Books, Arts, Storytelling, Wnyc, New, Remnick, News Commentary, Yorker, Politics

4.2 • 5.5K Ratings

🗓️ 19 July 2024

⏱️ 34 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

CNN’s data guru Harry Enten says that, unless the race shifts significantly, Donald Trump will win. And the pollster Ann Selzer explains how the polls know what they know.

Transcript

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0:00.0	This is the New Yorker Radio Hour, a co-production of WNYC Studios and the New Yorker.
0:10.0	Welcome to the New Yorker Radio Hour. I'm Claire Malone. I'm a staff writer at the New Yorker covering politics and the media and I'm sitting in today for David Remnick.
0:20.0	There's just no other way to put it. This presidential election has been shocking,
0:25.6	with the assassination attempt on Donald Trump coming as the latest in a series of
0:29.7	historic and troubling events. And then there's the ongoing movement to convince President Biden to drop out of the
0:35.5	race. At a press conference on July 11th the reporter Haley Bowl from Scripps
0:40.3	asked him whether Kamla Harris should replace him.
0:44.0	If your team came back and showed you data that she would fare better against former
0:48.8	President Donald Trump, would you reconsider your decision to stay in the race?
0:54.0	No, unless they came back and said,
0:56.0	there's no way you can win.
1:00.0	Me.
1:01.0	No one's saying that. No polls says that.
1:08.0	Biden won the primaries already.
1:10.1	There isn't really a precedent for this.
1:12.2	But recent polls in key swing states show his support fading,
1:15.8	and that has Democrats, including Congressman Adam Schiff, advocating desperate measures.
1:22.0	To find out what we know at this point, the best assessment we can make about what's going to happen
1:26.4	in November, I called up Harry Enten.
1:29.7	Harry spends most of his time buried in the cross-tabs of polls. He works at CNN as a data
1:34.9	reporter and we worked together for years at the website 538. We did reporting
1:40.0	and analysis from polling and other data. I reached him in Milwaukee at the Republican National Convention.
	...

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