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Peak Prosperity

The Post-Pandemic Real Estate Crunch

Peak Prosperity

Chris Martenson

Investing, Business, Government

4.7591 Ratings

🗓️ 9 May 2024

⏱️ 37 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

In our latest episode, we dive deep into the cascading crisis in the commercial real estate sector, a market upheaval that’s been quietly brewing beneath the surface of our economy.

Join me as I sit down with renowned real estate expert Ken McElroy to unravel the complex web of issues now plaguing office spaces nationwide. From towering high-rises standing ghostly and vacant, to the dramatic shifts in work culture post-pandemic, we explore the stark realities and the future possibilities for these once bustling centers of business.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Costs are rippling, you know, they first started, you know, call it at the Main Street level,

0:05.4

and now they're hitting the corporate level, and people are making decisions now, you know,

0:10.8

and cutting back on things that they wouldn't normally do.

0:14.0

And, you know, I, it's going to be really, you know, and don't forget all this banking stuff

0:19.4

is going to be hitting in the next 18 months. It's going to be a, you know, and don't forget all this banking stuff is going to be hitting in the next 18 months.

0:21.9

It's going to be a really rough 24 months, I believe.

0:35.8

Ken McElroy, how much of a disaster is office space right now?

0:40.1

It's horrible, dude.

0:41.3

Like horrible.

0:42.9

Like, I'll tell you, I got friends that are going down, down, down.

0:46.9

And, you know, it's not sustainable either, Chris.

0:50.3

The work from home, the people don't want to go back to work like they used to.

0:53.7

The employers don't need as much space to work like they used to. The employers

0:54.2

don't need as much space as they wanted before. And so the reason it hasn't completely crashed

0:59.9

is because most of these leases are three, five, seven even longer years. And so, you know,

1:06.1

the pandemic wasn't really that long ago. And the behavior of going to the office has completely changed.

1:12.8

And the interesting thing is the lag effect is actually going to surprise you.

1:18.4

Most of these big high rises that you look at with all the names up top, you typically banks, let's say,

1:26.0

they're owned by institutions. They're owned by Wall Street.

1:31.2

So if you look at a capital stack, you usually have debt, then you have equity. Even the equity

1:36.3

might be a pension, might be a retirement plan, might be, you know, BlackRock, Goldman,

1:41.0

it doesn't really matter, you know, manage money. Very rarely is it, you know,

...

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