The Past and Future of Societal Collapse: Why Civilizations Fall and What We Can Learn From It with Luke Kemp
The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens
Nate Hagens
4.8 • 549 Ratings
🗓️ 24 September 2025
⏱️ 136 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
For many people today, the idea of societal collapse is unimaginable. Yet history shows that well-established civilizations have fallen again and again – often for similar reasons. In fact, the same forces that build empires can also culminate in their downfall. How can understanding these historical patterns help us prepare for similar existential risks we may already be facing today?
In this episode, Nate is joined by existential risk researcher Luke Kemp to explore the intricate history of societal collapse – connecting patterns of dominance hierarchies, resource control, and inequality to create societies which he calls Goliaths. Together, they delve into the deep history of what egalitarian humans were like before complex civilizations emerged, and the changes in climate and agriculture that created the conditions for hierarchical societies. Luke explains how these very same factors have culminated in the rise and fall of Goliaths, and how these have led to today's global challenges such as nuclear warfare and even AI-fueled surveillance states.
Can knowing our past help us avoid repeating it? Are we in collapse now, and was this civilizational trajectory inevitable? How does the study of civilizational collapse help us grasp the best and worst of humanity – and can we use that knowledge to lean into the better sides of ourselves and put ourselves on a different, more resilient path?
(Conversation recorded on August 6th, 2025)
About Luke Kemp:
Luke is a Research Affiliate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) and Darwin College at the University of Cambridge. His research focuses on understanding the history and future of extreme global risk. Luke has advised the WHO and multiple international institutions, and his work has been covered by media outlets such as the BBC, New York Times, and the New Yorker. He holds both a Doctorate in International Relations and a Bachelor of Interdisciplinary Studies with first class honours from the Australian National University (ANU). His first book, titled Goliath's Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse, was published in 2025 and is now available.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | power tends to beget more power. That means that both wealth inequality, but also other forms |
| 0:05.3 | of power tend to become more concentrated. And that has a number of corrosive knock on effects |
| 0:10.4 | across society. When you get these settlements, they actually start as egalitarian, and over |
| 0:15.7 | time, they start to become more unequal, more hierarchical. And often, once they reach a high level of inequality |
| 0:21.6 | and hierarchy, that's when they start to become unstable and start to collapse thereafter. |
| 0:25.7 | Are we in collapse now? |
| 0:31.9 | You're listening to the great simplification. I'm Nate Hagen's. On this show, we describe how energy, the economy, |
| 0:39.7 | the environment, and human behavior all fit together and what it might mean for our future. |
| 0:44.6 | By sharing insights from global thinkers, we hope to inform and inspire more humans to play |
| 0:51.1 | emergent roles in the coming great simplification. |
| 0:59.0 | Today I am rejoined by existential risk and collapse researcher Luke Kemp to discuss his new book, Goliath's Curse, the history and Future of Societal Collapse, which was just |
| 1:12.5 | released in the United States on September 23rd. Luke is a research affiliate at the Center |
| 1:18.6 | for Study of Existential Risk at Darwin College at the University of Cambridge. His work focuses on |
| 1:26.5 | understanding the history and future of extreme global |
| 1:29.8 | risk, with this new book Goliath's curse being the product of his years of research. This episode |
| 1:36.2 | is on more than just the most likely causes of collapse in the coming decades. Rather, it's a deep |
| 1:42.1 | dive into why the social structures that humans have been creating |
| 1:45.2 | for the last few thousands of years, what we typically call civilizations, always inevitably |
| 1:52.2 | collapse due to the very nature of how they were formed. The implications of Luke's research |
| 1:58.8 | lend enormous insight into our modern global systems, |
| 2:02.3 | what Luke calls the global Goliath. |
| 2:05.8 | And also carries a lot of parallels to the story of the superorganism, which is at the heart |
... |
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