The Only Game in Town
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 11 December 2020
⏱️ 16 minutes
🔗️ Recording | Apple Podcasts | RSS
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
• Over the last 42 days, the market is up very close to 4,000 points • Over the last 42 days, Joe Biden has won the Presidency • Over the last 42 days, reported COVID cases have grown • Over the last 42 days, weekly jobless claims have picked back up • And once again, over the last 42 days, the market is up very close to 4,000 points
Now, I could write you a Dividend Cafe today reiterating a couple of things I have already written 100+ times in 2020 (and they would be no less valid now than they were then) – that the Fed has implemented monetary policies that have indisputably served to boost the valuations of risk assets … that the COVID doom & gloom in the press has unimpressed markets as markets learned the more detailed nature of the virus’s risk and specific vulnerabilities about seven months ago … that markets are forward-looking and with a vaccine on the horizon see a better 2021 looming … that economic damage has been limited in this painful year to a rather vulnerable but less systemically impactful part of the economy … and so forth and so on.
And if I wrote that Dividend Cafe, I would hope it would be useful, fruitful, and informative in some of the market lessons it would contain. However, it would very likely miss the most important thing one could say about this market, and frankly, one of the most important lessons one can learn about the nature of capital, period.
So that is the ambition of Dividend Cafe today. To explain why the market has been behaving as it has been, not just in the context of the four or five things uttered a couple of paragraphs ago, but in light of a huge lesson for all. And to do this, I will share a story with you that I hope somehow, someway, delivers the message with clarity. Jump on into the Dividend Cafe …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio |
| 0:07.0 | and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:11.0 | Hello, welcome to this week's Dividend Cafe, both those you listening on the podcast and watching the video. |
| 0:20.0 | I'm sitting here in our New York studio. |
| 0:23.6 | I think it's the first time I've recorded from here in a little while. |
| 0:28.6 | We've, |
| 0:28.7 | there's been a lot back and forth and we've had, |
| 0:32.1 | we've kind of recorded some different places and so forth. |
| 0:35.2 | But, you know, |
| 0:36.6 | I have kind of a fun one here today, or at least for me, |
| 0:39.9 | it's fun. The number one thing I'm getting asked right now, and it's interesting, you know, |
| 0:45.5 | in my business over the years, there's always this just kind of thematic rotation of what we |
| 0:50.9 | hear a lot from. It's very rare that like one client has something on their mind and no one else does. |
| 0:58.0 | And a real obvious example I talked about a lot over the last several months was with the election. |
| 1:02.0 | And I made the comment, which was an accurate. |
| 1:05.0 | It was non-hyperbolic comment that I got more inquiries about what the election was going to do to the markets |
| 1:11.6 | this year than every other election cycle of my career put together. |
| 1:18.3 | And yet, you know, that's a pretty obvious example, but there's always these certain things |
| 1:23.6 | where you get one client one day and then three clients the next and next thing you know |
| 1:28.9 | over a month, you've heard various inquiries, maybe derivatives of the same inquiry, you know, |
| 1:35.1 | 50 times or something. And that's kind of just the way it goes. And so right now, the big theme |
| 1:42.1 | seems to be why is the market doing so well. Sometimes the reason or the |
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