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Rational Security

The "Off the Rails" Edition

Rational Security

The Lawfare Institute

Politics, Nationalsecurity, Government, Middleeast, News, Foreignpolicy

4.8 • 2K Ratings

🗓️ 26 February 2026

⏱️ 77 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

This week, Scott was joined by Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien, Lawfare Senior Editor Molly Roberts, and University of Virginia Professor of Law Paul Stephan to talk through the week’s big news in national security, including:

  • “Textual Healing.” On Friday, a 6-3 Supreme Court majority brought an end to at least the current iteration of President Trump’s controversial tariff policies, ruling that language in the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (or IEEPA) authorizing the “regulation of…importation” doesn’t include the authority to impose tariffs. That said, President Trump himself has already indicated that he intends to reinstate many of the tariffs he had installed using IEEPA under other statutory authorities. How big a setback is this for the Trump administration’s trade policies? And what might it mean for other aspects of its policy agenda?
  • “Mayhem in Mexico.” Over the weekend, an elite unit of the Mexican army killed one of the country’s most powerful drug kingpins, Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, also known as “El Mencho.” His syndicate, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, immediately retaliated, through attacks on Mexican security forces, roadblocks throughout the country, and other measures intended to terrorize the public, particularly in areas frequented by American and Western tourists. The decision to move against El Mencho followed an intense pressure campaign by the Trump administration, which has pushed Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to take a hard stand against the cartels. Should this be seen as a win for the Trump administration? Or Sheinbaum? And what could the long-term implications be for the U.S.-Mexico relationship?
  • “Clap if You Believe.” On Tuesday, President Trump delivered his annual State of the Union address, the longest of its kind. Many had braced for a contentious speech, expecting Trump to ridicule the justices seated in front of him and potentially even announce strikes on Iran. But Trump appeared to pull his punches on both of those fronts—he instead saved his harshest words for congressional Democrats and focused on laying out a rose-colored picture of the state of the country. How effective was Trump’s speech? And what does it tell us about the current state of his second presidency?

In object lessons, Tyler just has this strange sense that you will enjoy the Otherworld podcast. Molly (and her dog) find comfort in the soft, squishy claws of Cthulhu. Scott eased his travel woes with a twist on the Vieux Carre at Birch & Bloom in Charlottesville. And Paul mixed his object lesson with three parts: Peter Suderman’s Cocktails if you’re into all things shaken and stirred; Mark Galeotti's podcast, In Moscow’s Shadow, if you’re into all things Russia-related; and Dan Wang’s New York Times Best Seller book, “Breakneck,” if you’re into all things China-related. 

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Transcript

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0:00.0

So, Tyler, you and I have something in common in that we have become trained denizens of the last few days.

0:07.7

I've spent more time in train stations.

0:09.1

I spent on actual trains over the last 48 hours due to a lovely trip to Charlottesville, although the means of getting to and from were not as lovely.

0:16.9

But I think you had even worse luck than I have lately, haven't you?

0:20.1

Well, I mean, first of all, we're just lucky to be in a country that values public transportation so much that we have just stellar facilities everywhere we go. But actually, no, I shouldn't complain because I did this morning on my way in to D.C. I left from New York Penn Station, Moynihan Train Hall, which is new. It's fancy, and fancy, lack of seating, of course. But I had H&H bagels, which is my go-to. I usually get H&H bagels and everything bagel with locks spread, which is the working man's locks. But it was delicious. Sorry if I have any like poppy seeds in my mouth or my teeth. I love the old school train station. The Charlottesville train station is my favorite because you don't even catch the train outside. You literally like walk out through a fence door and just try and catch up on the outside. I'm like half expecting to have to run a little bit to catch it while it's still moving. It's got that sort of vibe. They give you a long runway to be able to get to it. But yeah, it's like the amenities are slightly more limited. A couple of restaurants nearby, luckily, but Union Station, where I got stuck at for like three hours on Monday night, I guess it was, has like all sorts of stuff now. They've got like a hip new record station and used bookstore that I pillage. And that's actually going to be my object lesson this week. Like, I feel like they've really up their game in terms of activities for the snowed in crowd, which I appreciate.

1:31.5

But at the cost of any place to sit down, it seems, because they just have like gotten rid of all

1:35.3

their chairs. I recently saw a tweet from some MAGA type actually saying it's a thank you to President

1:42.6

Trump for the better Union Station.

1:45.1

So I think the lack of seating, it's, you know, it's a trend in the train stations having to do with

1:50.7

driving out the people who would, I guess, make it what this guy would have said was a worse

1:54.8

union station. But I don't think Trump is directly to thank for the record shop.

1:58.3

Well, fair enough. I think the Transportation Department did actually take over Union Station.

2:02.2

I can't remember that happened under Trump or under Biden,

2:04.4

but the last year or two through some sort of arrangement.

2:06.4

So there may be some federal debt to be owed.

2:08.9

But, you know, he cannot claim that he made the trains run on time.

2:11.7

That is something that not even Trump can get to on this one.

2:20.0

Hello, everyone, and welcome back to Rational Security, the show where we invite you to join

2:24.4

members of the Lawfare team as we try to make sense of the week's big national security

2:28.4

news stories.

2:30.1

I'm thrilled to be joined by a few of my colleagues, a few regular appearances, and an old

2:33.8

friend who's not been on the podcast in a while. I'll start with the old friend, and that is, of course, Professor Paul Stephen of the University of Virginia School of Law. A least once, I think we found you on twice now, if I recall correctly, on the podcast. But it's been a little while. We're excited to have you back on, Paul. Thanks for joining us. Delighted to be here. You were kind enough to host me in Charlottesville and unilized that involved being dragooned in person and guilty to come back on our podcasts in a way that's much harder to reject it and email our text. So thank you for humoring me in that regard. I'm always proud to hang out with the cool kids. And joining us in the cool kids alley here in the back of the bus, uh, is none other than Molly Roberts, who has gone from, uh, one of our new appearances to somebody I've Dragoon multiple times in a row, an elite cadre, and now a straight on regular. And of course, I should mention senior editor here at Lawfare. Molly, thank you for coming back on the podcast. Thank you for having me and calling me a cool kid.

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