THE MINING POD: 2025 Bitcoin Hashrate Forecast w/ Valentin Rousseau

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4.7 • 698 Ratings

🗓️ 22 April 2025

⏱️ 39 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Valentin Rousseau joins the pod to discuss his new report that forecasts Bitcoin’s hashrate for 2025 through 2027. You're listening to The Mining Pod. Subscribe to the newsletter, trusted by over 12,000 Bitcoiners: https://newsletter.blockspacemedia.com Want to mine Bitcoin? Check out the Blockspace Media store today! Welcome back to The Mining Pod! Welcome back to The Mining Pod! Today, Valentin Rousseau (a.k.a as Muad Dib on X), a bitcoin mining researcher who's worked with Hash Labs and the University of Cambridge, joins us to discuss his Blockspace report on hashrate forecasting for 2025, 2026, and 2027. Valentin breaks down his methodology for predicting Bitcoin's hashrate trajectory, analyzes hashrate deployment schedules for public miners, unpacks how tariffs could slow U.S. hashrate growth – and thus the Bitcoin network’s growth as well, and answers the question: will we still see 1 zetahash in 2025? # Notes: - Projected ~1000 EH/s by end of 2025 - Forecast: 1700 EH/s by end of 2027 - Public miners = 37% of global hashrate - US tariffs reduced 2025 forecast by 60 EH/s - Private miners leading international expansion - ASIC prices flattened since 2022 crash Timestamps: 00:00 Start 02:27 2025 Mining Outlook 06:28 Public miner success rate 08:30 2026 & 2027 Outlook 11:27 Hashrate prediction 2027 13:59 Accounting for tariffs 16:14 US domestic vs International 17:10 Private vs public hashrate 20:06 Machine purchases 24:34 Greenfield vs Brownfield sites 29:34 Map of US hashrate 31:54 Hashrate averages 35:57 Wrap up 49:29 Vibe shift 👉 Fractal Bitcoin, Reduces up to 50% of your pool fee. No new hardware, no extra energy. And it’s easy. FB rewards go straight to your existing Bitcoin wallet address. Over 50% of Bitcoin’s hashpower is already merge mining Fractal. Get more from the same resources — start on Fractal today! 👉 Luxor, Leaders In Bitcoin Mining and Compute Power! Get game-changing mining results with Luxor Firmware. Boost hashrate, cut energy costs, protect your hardware, and maximize mining profits with LuxOS. Published twice weekly, "The Mining Pod" interviews the best builders and operators in the Bitcoin and Bitcoin mining landscape. Subscribe to get notifications when we publish interviews on Tuesday and a news show on Friday! See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Transcript

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0:45.6	That's audible.com slash Wondery, UK.
0:49.7	What's up, y'all?
0:50.6	Welcome back to the mining pod.
0:52.0	For this week's show, we dabble into a little
0:54.5	armchair clairvoyance with the one and only Valentin Rousseau. You might know him as Muad Deeb Hill
1:00.4	on X. He is a Bitcoin mining researcher. He's done work for hash labs and Cambridge in the
1:07.2	past for their Bitcoin mining electricity consumption index. And today he joins us to discuss a report that he wrote for Blockspace about forecasting Bitcoin's
1:15.8	hash rate for the rest of the year and on through 2027.
1:19.8	So for this show, we go into some of the methodology for the forecast, look at results.
1:24.9	And we also dig into some of the data sets that went into this report and a longer
1:28.5	one that he gave us. We actually paired it back and focused on the forecasts, looking at some
1:33.1	historical data for ASIC purchases and geographic distribution of hash rate. Really, really enjoyed
	...

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