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Rational Security

The "Middle East War to End Middle East Wars" Edition

Rational Security

The Lawfare Institute

Foreignpolicy, Nationalsecurity, News, Government, Politics, Middleeast

4.8 • 2K Ratings

🗓️ 18 June 2025

⏱️ 74 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

This week, Scott sat down with Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien and Foreign Policy Editors Daniel Byman and Dana Stuster to talk through the week’s big news in Israel and Iran, including:

  • “The Nuclear Option.” Israel crossed the rubicon late last week and took direct military action against Iran’s nuclear weapons program, among other targets, in an aggressive unilateral military campaign that has only expanded in the ensuing days. Iran, meanwhile, has reciprocated with volleys of attacks against Israel, some of which are getting through the substantial missile defenses Israel (and the United States) have deployed. It’s the Middle East war everyone has feared for more than a decade. How will it come to an end? And what will its ramifications be for the region?
  • “Bibi Got Back.” Israel has threatened to take direct military action against Iran over its nuclear program multiple times over the past two decades but has always stopped short. Why did Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu proceed this time? And what will the implications be for his government, which has been teetering on the edge of collapse? And for his relationship with President Trump, his once close ally who declined to back his decision to proceed?
  • “Bye-Atollah.” While Israel’s official target has been Iran’s nuclear and military complexes, many observers suspect that their real goal is something else: regime change. And recent reports that Netanyahu proposed killing Iranian political and spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini—but relented after objections from the Trump administration—suggest they may be right. What might Iran look like if its current regime collapses? And will it help or hurt Israeli (and U.S.) security interests?

In Object Lessons, Tyler sang the praises of online radio station NTS.Live and NTS Guides to all of your quirky and eclectic musical tastes. Scott didn’t miss a beat with his throwback recommendation of Schoolhouse Rock song covers, with a particular fondness for Pavement’s rendition of No More Kings. And Dana shared his appreciation for analysis that takes Israel’s and Iran’s strategic calculus seriously.

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Transcript

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0:00.0

So I, you know, got to enjoy something that has been happening a little too often the last few years here in my hometown of Washington, D.C., which is I got to see the military briefly take over my city for the second time in recent years.

0:15.6

A little more celebratory at this point than last time this past weekend. I can't say I went to go watch the parade, but it was kind of hard to avoid in terms of traffic and road shutdowns here around town.

0:26.7

How did you all celebrate the weekend? Did you get out there and celebrate what is, of course,

0:31.7

the Army's birthday, no one else's birthday with a little paramilitary militaristic salute, or what did you spend your

0:39.8

weekend doing?

0:40.6

I'll just say quickly, because I live in New York, as you know, I didn't get even the opportunity

0:46.4

to decide to go to the parade or not, but I was very curious about it, so I listened to NPR's

0:52.1

coverage of it, and the NPR correspondent who was at the military

0:56.2

parade said with some bewilderment that he really only saw about 10% of the crowd in Maga Hats.

1:02.1

And from people he spoke to, there were some people there supporting, you know, Trump, some people

1:06.1

there supporting the military, but mostly people just really wanted to see the tanks, is what he said.

1:13.9

And I think that really, like, threw this correspondent for a loop.

1:17.1

We wanted some hard-hitting political coverage, but really it's just kind of like the guns

1:21.3

and bombs crowd.

1:22.6

I'm curious, has anyone checked on the roads yet?

1:24.1

That was all I heard about the tanks beforehand.

1:26.7

Are the roads okay? That is my concern heard about the tanks beforehand. Are the roads okay?

1:28.2

That is my concern as well. I will say I'm all four people going to get to check out and see,

1:33.6

you know, tanks and boats and planes and whatever else they want to see. They are cool.

1:38.0

Helicopters are awesome. Believe me, I've read and riding them for a chunk of my career.

1:41.0

They're awesome. But I just don't need them on my commute,

1:44.9

ripping up my roads in a way that evidently is not guaranteed to get reimbursed by the Defense

...

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