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War on the Rocks

The Method (or Madness) of Counting the Seconds to Doomsday

War on the Rocks

War on the Rocks

News, Politics

4.61.1K Ratings

🗓️ 3 February 2020

⏱️ 49 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Many of you have heard of the Doomsday Clock — a decades-old analogue clock meant to symbolize how close we are to nuclear catastrophe. However far we are from midnight, we are told, is how close we are to disaster. More recently, it is also meant to incorporate the risks of catastrophic climate change. It was started by many of the scientists responsible for the creation of the nuclear weapon. And it is, and has always been, run by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. The Bulletin just set the clock to 100 seconds to midnight — the closest it's ever been. On Twitter, Ryan remarked that he didn't think this exercise added much in the way of value. And so, a debate began. Ryan assembled a group to debate the Doomsday Clock (over Manhattans, appropriately). On one side, Miles Pomper of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and Benjamin H. Friedman of Defense Priorities. On the other, Jon Wolfsthal and Sharon Squassoni, both of whom sit on the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Science and Security Board. And Ryan served as an admittedly biased moderator.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Many of you have heard of the doomsday clock, a decades-old analog clock meant to

0:16.4

symbolize how close we are to nuclear catastrophe. However far we are from

0:20.6

midnight we're told is how close we are to disaster. More recently

0:24.2

it's also meant to incorporate the risks of catastrophic climate change. It was started by many

0:28.7

of the scientists responsible for the creation of the nuclear weapon and it is and always

0:32.2

has been run by the bulletin of the atomic

0:33.9

scientists.

0:35.1

The bulletin just sent the clock to 100 seconds to midnight, the closest it's ever been.

0:40.5

On Twitter I remarked that I didn't think this exercise added much in the way of value and so a debate began

0:45.1

Sometimes not always but sometimes spats on Twitter lead to good podcasts I got a great group together to debate the doomsday clock to a post miles Miles Pomper of the James Martin Center for Non-Proliferation Studies and Benjamin H. Friedman of defense priorities. And two in favor, John Wolfslaw and Sharon Squissome, both of whom are on the Bolton of the Atomic

1:04.0

Scientists Science and Security Board, the people who set the clock.

1:07.0

And while I served as moderator, I didn't do a very good job of being neutral.

1:11.0

Enjoy the show. Before I kick it off to all of you I will say

1:16.5

that just for background the clock has been changed 25 times I believe over the years

1:20.8

since 1947 I went on Wikipedia in Canada so that's what that says at least

1:24.7

and now it is currently at the closest it has ever been in its history a hundred seconds to

1:29.1

midnight or a hundred seconds to global catastrophe so why don't I let John, since John really helped me put this together and was the first

1:37.5

to agree to do this show, John, why don't you kick it off?

1:40.8

Well sure, first of all, thanks for having us.

1:43.0

Thanks for providing the cocktails.

1:45.0

This is not a new debate for people that have been involved in this field,

1:50.0

and it's particularly not a new debate for people involved with the bulletin.

...

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