The messy, tricky, hairy task of economic forecasting
Marketplace All-in-One
Marketplace
4.5 • 1.4K Ratings
🗓️ 28 January 2026
⏱️ 8 minutes
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Summary
We’ve been deluged with the annual economic and market forecasts that traditionally mark the turn of a new year. Is it worth paying attention to these forecasts, or are they a waste of time? Maybe a little bit of both? Today, we're joined by Marketplace senior economics contributor Chris Farrell to assess their worth. But first, we'll discuss some of the forecasts and market conditions the Federal Reserve has in mind at this week's meeting. And, Boeing’s revenue is up, as are its airplane delivery numbers.
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Why do we embrace economic forecasts when they're so often wrong? |
| 0:06.7 | I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles. The Federal Reserve meets this morning ahead of its briefing around 2 o'clock, Washington time. Interest rates will remain unchanged. I'm not alone in that prediction. We'll be listening closely to the Fed's view on jobs, prices, and growth. Let's turn to Susan Schmidt now. She's portfolio manager at Exchange Capital Resources. Good morning. Good morning. You know, it's a tough economy to figure out. I know that's what the Fed is trying to do, right? I mean, many economists say not a lot of layoffs, but not a lot of hiring yet. 16,000 people are going to go at Amazon, corporate people. |
| 0:41.0 | 30,000 people are going to go at the parcel delivery service UPS. |
| 0:45.1 | I mean, there's layoffs. |
| 0:46.5 | We are seeing headlines with big layoffs right now, those large numbers. |
| 0:50.2 | But remember that employment in the U.S., the majority of it happens at businesses that are |
| 0:55.1 | smaller than Amazon or UPS. And overall, the unemployment rate has been holding study. That's what |
| 1:02.3 | the Federal Reserve is looking at when they try to determine how interest rates are impacting |
| 1:06.1 | the economy. Now, you follow stocks very closely. It's your job. We get some big tech companies today. |
| 1:13.5 | Broad brush, are you expecting strength? |
| 1:16.7 | So far, the market is taking those announcements well. And people are optimistic that the AI trend can continue, |
| 1:24.7 | that it's going to bring increased productivity to the market overall |
| 1:28.7 | and to companies, that can always change. But at the moment, I think investors are positive |
| 1:33.0 | on the outlook. I'm not hearing from you that you think that it's a bubble that's about to |
| 1:37.3 | pop all this AI hype. It's certainly not the same bubble that we saw in the tech crash |
| 1:43.3 | in the turn of the century. |
| 1:45.4 | But it is interesting that the valuations can be this high. People don't know how much |
| 1:50.9 | productivity this can bring. That's where expectations are always perhaps more optimistic than |
| 1:56.8 | what can be delivered. Wait and see. The turn of the century. |
| 2:04.3 | Them were days, 1899. You and me, Susan. |
| 2:10.8 | We sound ancient. Susan Schmidt at Exchange Capital Resources. Thank you so much. |
| 2:36.6 | Thank you. Boeing of Airplane Space and Military Contracting Fame took in $24 billion in revenue last quarter. |
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