The Logic of Nuclear Policy: Deterrence and MAD Explained.
The Michael Shermer Show
Michael Shermer
4.3 • 1K Ratings
🗓️ 23 August 2024
⏱️ 44 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
As if 2024 couldn't get any weirder, tensions in the Middle East have escalated with the United States sending one of our nuclear submarines to the Mediterranean as a deterrent signal to Iran that they better think twice about attacking Israel. That sub, the Ohio-class USS Georgia, carries non-nuclear cruise missiles.
But 14 of our 18 Ohio-class submarines have nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles—each sub has in its belly the nuclear equivalent of all the bombs dropped in World War II. Multiply that by 14 and let your imagination be properly staggered.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have pushed into Russian territory and Putin is outraged at the invasion. How far can Ukraine go before Putin uses his battlefield tactical nukes in response?
In this solo episode, Michael Shermer discusses the threat of nuclear annihilation and explores the evolutionary origins of our moral emotions and logic of deterrence based on game theory.
Focus of the analysis: the need to reduce nuclear stockpiles and shifting the taboo from using to owning nuclear weapons.
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Hey everyone, Michael Schurmer here. This is a special solo commentary episode of the show, |
| 0:05.9 | which I plan on doing once a week from now on, along with the other two episodes with guests. |
| 0:11.6 | These will vary in length from short op-eds, so maybe five to ten minutes. |
| 0:16.4 | The longer analytical dives into certain topics, like half an hour or longer, |
| 0:21.0 | and this is one of the latter. |
| 0:23.3 | It's called Madness, M-A-D-all-C-S-N-N-N-T-N-N-O-C-S-N-Nyilation, and what to do about it. As if 2024 couldn't get any weirder, |
| 0:37.5 | tensions in the Middle East have escalated with the United States sending one of our |
| 0:41.5 | nuclear submarines to the Mediterranean as a deterrent |
| 0:45.0 | signal to Iran that they better think twice about attacking Israel. |
| 0:50.3 | That sub, the Ohio-class.S.S. Georgia, carries non-nuclear cruise missiles. |
| 0:56.0 | But 14 of our 18 Ohio Class submarines have nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles, |
| 1:02.0 | each sub of which has in its belly the nuclear |
| 1:05.4 | equivalent of all the bombs dropped in World War II. Multiply that by 14 and let your imagination be properly staggered. |
| 1:17.0 | Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have pushed into Russian territory and Putin is outraged that his invasion is not only |
| 1:25.2 | being deterred but countered. How far can Ukraine go before Putin uses his |
| 1:31.3 | battlefield technical nukes in response. |
| 1:35.4 | No one knows for certain. |
| 1:36.6 | Maybe even Putin doesn't know what he'll do, or win or wear. |
| 1:40.6 | But the threat is real. |
| 1:41.7 | The use of tactical nuclear weapons could escalate into a full-scale nuclear |
| 1:46.4 | exchange between Russia and NATO with, of course, America's nuclear backing. And that has consequences that are almost |
| 1:55.2 | unthinkable. And then of course there's North Korea's Kim Jong-un, little rocket man |
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