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Big Swings Only

The Intelligence Officer's Secret to Making Better Decisions - Anthony Vinci

Big Swings Only

American Negotiation Institute

Self-improvement, Business, Education

4.7751 Ratings

🗓️ 9 July 2026

⏱️ 73 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Most people think in binary — it will happen or it won't. A former CIA field officer says that mental habit is quietly destroying your decisions, your business, and your shot at the life you actually want. Anthony Vinci spent years recruiting intelligence sources in active war zones, advising presidents and generals on high-stakes decisions, and then managing investments at Bridgewater Associates under Ray Dalio — one of the most disciplined decision-making environments on the planet. After leaving government, he built a company from the ground up without knowing what an LLC was, wrote The Fourth Intelligence Revolution, and launched Veeo, a forecasting and scenario-planning platform now used by hedge funds, corporations, and governments. His hard-won insight: the cost of bad decisions is massive, and it follows you forever — but the right system changes everything. In this episode, you'll discover: Why "chunking" risk is the CIA method for taking action without freezing up — Anthony breaks down how he planned missions in Baghdad piece by piece, and how to apply the exact same framework to business decisions and big life swings The "compartmentalize risk" principle that explains why the world's biggest risk-takers (Special Forces operators, entrepreneurs) are often deeply conservative in other areas of their lives — and how to deliberately design yours Why stubbornness + optimism = resilience — and the hidden flip side that destroys most entrepreneurs who don't know when to stop The binary thinking trap: why saying "it's more likely than not" is dramatically less useful than saying "it's a 55% chance vs. a 90% chance" — and why that gap is where elite decision-makers live What Ray Dalio's Bridgewater taught Anthony about the one non-negotiable trait you need in your inner circle — and the exact type of person you must limit access to your energy Connect with Anthony Vinci www.anthonyvinci.com Connect with Kwame: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Request A Customized Workshop For Your Company⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Kwame Christian on LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠negotiateanything.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Click here to buy your copy of Finding Confidence in Conflict: How to Negotiate Anything and Live Your Best Life!⁠ @kwamenegotiates across all social platforms

Transcript

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0:00.0

Most of us think about what will happen in the world or in our life in this binary way, right?

0:07.0

This will happen or it won't happen, right?

0:10.0

Like that's just like the natural way to do it.

0:13.0

But really, the world is made up.

0:15.0

It's a spectrum of possibility.

0:18.0

And looking at things from a probabilistic, literal like percentage probability

0:23.6

way changes your whole approach to decision making.

0:28.6

The best decision makers in the world aren't smarter than you.

0:31.6

They just have a better system.

0:32.6

Anthony Vinci spent years building that system.

0:35.6

First as a CIA field officer, then as an entrepreneur,

0:39.8

and then as an investor in Bridgewater. My whole life had been about decision making. How do I help

0:44.8

a president make a decision or a general make a decision or when I was in finance? How do we make

0:49.4

a bit better decision about what to invest in? Or even me as a person, it's great. We've really been talking about it.

0:55.0

How do you make big life decisions? Anthony Vinci's book is The Fourth Intelligence Revolution.

1:00.1

His company is Vico Technologies. Anthony says the cost of bad decisions are huge and they stay with you

1:06.6

for life. This conversation will change the way you think about risk, calculated decision making,

1:12.7

and what it actually takes to make your big swathes. You know, one thing I learned in the period of my

1:18.3

life when I was an investor, that it was that great investors have people around them that can tell

1:25.1

them this is a bad idea and call out their weaknesses. And that could be hard.

1:30.0

If you have ever talked yourself out of making the right, life-changing decision, because the

1:34.8

risk felt too big, this episode is for you.

...

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