A lot of corporate economists got it wrong figuring we would be in recession last year.

Now their recession talk is way down.

I'm David Brancaccio.

Corporations employ economists to figure out where things are going.

And a new survey of these folks out today from the National Association for Business Economics

finds just a quarter of economists are predicting a recession this year.

Marketplace is Nancy Marshall Genser joins us with the data.

Yeah, that's good news, David, but the economists and the survey don't think the economy is totally out of the woods yet.

More than half still think will have a recession either next year or the year after.

They think it'll be caused by some kind of an external shock to the economy.

They're most worried about a conflict between China and Taiwan

or a broadening of the war in the Middle East

that would drive up oil prices.

And I see in the survey some of these economists think our central bankers are getting

it wrong on interest rates?

Yeah, more and more of these economists are saying the Fed is keeping interest rates too high for too long.

21% said rates were too high and that's up from just 14% last year.

And these economists were also asked about the role of government.

Anything stand out? Yeah, two-thirds of them said the U.S. should increase the

number of immigrants allowed into the country legally.

A Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said immigration has helped ease the US labor shortage.

The survey respondents also said the two most important objectives for the government are promoting economic growth

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