The Four Criteria for a Tech Bubble

Uncanny Valley | WIRED

WIRED

Technology

4.1 • 570 Ratings

🗓️ 6 November 2025

⏱️ 42 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Chatter about an AI bubble has been everywhere lately, and top tech companies like Google, Meta, and Microsoft have doubled down on their AI investments for 2026. But how have analysts in the past accurately identified forming tech bubbles? Mike and Lauren sit down with WIRED contributor and author of the newsletter Blood in the Machine Brian Merchant to break down the four criteria some researchers have used in the past to understand and brace for the worst.

Join WIRED’s best and brightest as they provide an insider analysis of the overlap between tech and politics, from the influence of Silicon Valley on the Trump administration to how inaccurate information from artificial intelligence (Ai) chatbots fanned the fire on social protests.

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Transcript

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0:00.0	Hey, Lauren. How you doing?
0:03.0	I'm okay, Mike. It's earnings season. So a lot of us in the business desk here at Wired have been tuning into tech companies' earnings reports and their earnings calls. And I guess that basically means it's CAPX season. CapEx? Capital expenditures.
0:18.5	You say CAPX? Yeah, now that I'm a business desk reporter, I say CAPX.
0:22.6	You're one of those.
0:23.6	Throw it around at parties.
0:24.6	No, I really don't.
0:25.6	But we are seeing a trend in how tech companies are sleeping on piles of money, but they
0:30.6	aren't just sleeping on it.
0:31.6	They are sharing big plans to spend on it and especially to spend on AI infrastructure.
0:37.9	Right, data centers.
0:38.9	Yeah, more data centers, not just data centers, but yes, that's a big part of it.
0:43.2	And this is all partly what is fueling all this talk about a bubble, which we touched on a little bit a couple of weeks ago with our colleague Molly Taft.
0:49.7	But today, we're going to be talking about AI bubble mania.
0:53.9	Yes, we are.
0:54.6	And our guest today has a lot to say about it.
0:57.2	The writer Brian Merchant is joining us.
0:59.6	Brian, welcome to Wired's Uncanny Valley.
1:02.4	We're really thrilled to have you here,
1:04.3	although we're not super thrilled about the topic we're talking about.
1:07.9	How are you doing today?
1:10.0	Oh, I am as well as can be, I think. Yeah, thanks for having me.
1:14.2	I am thrilled to get into the ins and outs of bubble dumb with you both.
	...

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