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The Breakdown

The Five Most Important Stories in Crypto This Week

The Breakdown

Blockworks

Investing, Business

4.8806 Ratings

🗓️ 4 October 2025

⏱️ 19 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

On today’s Breakdown, NLW kicks off the first Friday Five of October with Bitcoin’s soaring price action. From October’s uncanny seasonality and ETF inflow momentum to government shutdown delays and Citi and JPMorgan’s bold predictions, the conversation explores why markets seem determined to shrug off risk. NLW also covers the potential regulatory fallout of a prolonged shutdown, new SEC-CFTC collaboration, Kraken’s $20B raise, and Stripe’s stablecoin play. Plus, the week’s strangest culture clash story—Netflix cancellations over Elon Musk tweets. Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast: https://pod.link/1438693620 Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheBreakdownBW Subscribe to the newsletter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thebreakdown⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join the discussion: https://discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8 Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownBW

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.

0:08.0

It's a daily podcast on Macro, Bitcoin, and the Big Picture Power Shifts remaking our world.

0:19.0

What's going on, guys? It is Friday, October 3rd, and that means it's time for the Friday 5.

0:23.2

Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying the breakdown, please go subscribe to it,

0:26.9

give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation,

0:30.5

come join us on the Breakers Discord. You can find a link in the show notes or go to bit.ly

0:34.6

slash breakdown pod. All right, friends, we are back with another Friday

0:38.8

5. And as our first Friday 5 of October, it is only appropriate that we talk about why Bitcoin

0:45.3

is soaring. Uptober, baby, that's the story. Let's dig in.

0:51.0

The Bulls are back in town. They don't care about government shutdowns with a lack of economic numbers.

0:59.3

Nothing stops this market. Recessions are illegal. And if you think things can go down, you are just simply wrong.

1:07.5

$120,000 Bitcoin. Just casual. Like 120,000, UTF inflow, boost market momentum.

1:15.6

What's going on with this market?

1:17.1

There is no force more powerful in Bitcoin than the power of October.

1:22.3

Simply put, it turns October and this happens.

1:25.6

That's just the rule.

1:26.6

I don't make the rules.

1:28.0

It literally happens on the first. I don't remember I keep saying it was maybe it was 20, 21, but there was like a $10,000 God candle or something crazy, a multi-thousand-percent God candle the minute the clock struck midnight in the Eastern Standard Time.

1:41.7

Yeah, usually actually, if you go back and look at the pattern, it's usually the first couple of weeks, give us a little scare, and then the second half of October is where it gets good. But to your point, you know, I think actually 2017, 2021, and now 2025. So those who are calling the end of a four-year cycle be damned. You know, we've had this explosion right at the beginning of October. So yeah, it's got to be it. Bitcoin seasonality, no other explanation. There could be no other explanation. So clearly the four-year cycle is then intact, which means it's all over in the month or two. Yeah, exactly. I enjoy it now. No, but you know, it's funny. I think that there's, there's a couple things that are actually going on. And one of them is there is a bit of just sort of broader market, you know, I would kind of characterize the markets right now as sticking their fingers in their ears and saying, nah, nana, nana, you can't stop me as all of the other people try to say,

2:35.2

you know, bubble or AI infrastructure boom bubble or, you know, like there is a real kind of

2:39.8

a willful unwillingness to do anything but go up to some extent. And, you know, Bitcoin is

2:45.9

a little bit coming along for the ride for that. Now, at the same time, I do think that we're also

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