Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.

It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world.

What's going on, guys? It is Thursday, October 2nd, and today we are talking October. Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying the breakdown, please go subscribe to it, give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation, come join us on the breakers discord. You can find a link in the show notes or go to bit.ly. All right, friends, well, the leaves are turning, the pumpkin drinks are back on the menu, and the une notes are go to bit.ly slash breakdown pod. All right friends, well, the leaves are turning,

the pumpkin drinks are back on the menu, and the unequivocal single best month of the year has begun.

October also seems to be Bitcoin's favorite month of the year. While some were concerned

the September struggles would continue, price action over the past few days makes it feel like

October has indeed

arrived. Wednesday saw Bitcoin gain 3.7% to rise above 118,000 for the first time since

mid-August. With only one trading day in the books, October is already looking good compared

to the choppy September that saw just 5.2% added to the price. Stack Hoddler wrote,

Welcome to October. Now that Bitcoin has bored us all to death, it's time for it to remind us why it's the apex asset. We're up 91% in the past year, but sentiment-wise, this feels more like a bottom than a top. Everyone has forgotten about Bitcoin. Even the bears have mostly moved on, no point insureding a stable coin. But this is exactly the setup that Bitcoin thrives on. There's zero froth in this

market, and yet we're only 6% away from a new all-time high. If we shoot past 124K in the next week or two,

the Monster Q4 could become a self-fulfilling prophecy, as everyone realizes that history is about to repeat.

Other analysts noticed that Bitcoin didn't care one single iota about the government shutdown.

If anything, the strong positive moves as the news broke in the early hours of Wednesday morning

seemed to suggest that Bitcoin is being used to hedge government dysfunction.

Bitcoin and risk assets more generally have a mixed history with government shutdowns,

but the most recent one from 2019 began as a risk-off event before giving way to a risk-on rally. This shutdown looks risk-on

from the start, with U.S. stocks putting in a solid green day alongside a big rise for Bitcoin.

QCP Capital commented in their research note on Wednesday that, on fiscal theater, the U.S.

government shutdown should be a market non-event beyond data delays and headline noise.

Essential services continue, backpay limits income effects, and past episodes have not derailed

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