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RiskReversal Pod

The First Cut is the Deepest with Liz Young and Tom James of TradeFlow Capital Management

RiskReversal Pod

RiskReversal Media

News, Investing, Business, Business News

4.6757 Ratings

🗓️ 6 November 2023

⏱️ 53 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

On this episode of On The Tape, Guy Adami and Liz Young talk about whether to trust the rally (2:00), what economic data is telling us (5:00), why the Fed may have to cut rates sooner than the market thinks it will (11:00), bear market rallies  (15:00), BlackRock’s Boivin Says High Rates Still a Threat to Stock Rally (18:00), the expectation of margin expansion (22:00), and Fed speak this week (25:30). Later, Tom James of TradeFlow Capital Management joins the podcast to discuss his background in commodities and how it translates to TradeFlow (32:45). Connect with Tom James and TradeFlow on LinkedIn. You can also check out Tom’s book Deep Space Commodities: Exploration, Production and Trading. — About the Show: On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money’s Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They’re offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we’re here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market. — Check out our show notes here Learn more about Ro body: ro.co/tape See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape. — Shoot us an email at [email protected] with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod on Twitter or @riskreversalmedia on Threads — We’re on social: Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow Liz Young @LizYoungStrat on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome for the On the Tape podcast. I'm Guy Adami. I'm joined as always by Elizabeth Young. That, of course, is E.Y of SoFi. Elizabeth, how are you?

0:10.1

Buenos days. I am wonderful. Happy Monday to you and everybody listening. To you as well. Today, by the way, later on, we're going to be joined by Tom James. He's the CEO and CIO and co-founder of trade flow.

0:23.8

That's a fascinating conversation that Dan and I had. So stick around. By the way, Art Dela Cruz this

0:29.8

Friday, a special drop of the On the Tape podcast from Team Rubicon. And we have a special

0:35.1

giveaway on the back of that, so stay tuned. Elizabeth,

0:38.3

that's all the housekeeping. Let's talk about the markets because I will tell you, once again,

0:43.8

I find myself Thursday and Friday of last week on the very confused side of the equation.

0:49.9

Yes, it was maybe not the direction that we would have expected immediately, but I don't know that

0:54.4

it's entirely confusing yet. I think there's relief, and we've talked about this a little bit,

1:00.8

yields come down, the yield curve is restapening, there's relief that now the Fed is all but confirmed

1:06.2

done with this hiking cycle. They just can't really say that they're done with the hiking cycle.

1:10.4

So the

1:11.1

immediate interpretation, the knee-jerk reaction is, oh, thank goodness, it might be done, right? It might be

1:17.4

over. They're not going to constrict any further. But I think what we haven't seen yet, and I'm not

1:22.1

saying that it's wrong or right to say that this is a new uptrend or that this is a bare market rally, but that's where the debate is now. We don't know the answer to either of those things. If it is a new uptrend,

1:33.1

what we need to see is things that will confirm that. So things like high beta outperforming low

1:39.3

beta, discretionary outperforming staples, you need to see breadth that continues to strengthen for multiple

1:46.1

days in a row. Now, we did see some strong breath last week. And what I mean by that is the advance

1:50.0

versus decline in the S&P. But we're still at a point where only 44% of the S&P is trading above its

1:57.6

200-day moving average. So we don't have confirmation yet. I think that last

2:01.2

week was a relief rally. I'm not going to call it a bear market rally, but I do think that there was a lot

2:05.9

of relief in it. And I don't know that that should be entirely surprising after the few months that

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