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RiskReversal Pod

Stock Market Rally on Shaky Ground with David Rosenberg

RiskReversal Pod

RiskReversal Media

News, Investing, Business, Business News

4.6757 Ratings

🗓️ 3 November 2023

⏱️ 59 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

On this episode of “On The Tape,” Guy, Danny, and Dan talk about the rally off the lows (2:00), yields vs. stocks (9:00), commodities (16:30), the BOJ meeting (18:00), bank stocks (21:30), why Dan thinks it’s a good trading environment (24:30), and Danny’s NFL picks (27:30). David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research joins to discuss the rally within the bear market (32:00), why the bond market is more attractive than the stock market (36:00), what would make him “very bullish” (39:00), the economy (41:00), what happens to the stock market when the Fed stops raising interest rates (44:00), the possibility for a recession (47:30), positioning in the bond market (49:30), cracks in the housing market (55:00), the stock to bond ratio (59:30), and credit (1:01:30). — About the Show: On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money’s Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They’re offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we’re here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market. — Check out our show notes here Learn more about Ro body: ro.co/tape See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape. — Shoot us an email at [email protected] with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod on Twitter or @riskreversalmedia on Threads — We’re on social: Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow Liz Young @LizYoungStrat on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page

Transcript

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0:00.0

Back in my commodities days, once in a while we'd look at the equity market, and we were always amazed that the market just seemingly went up every day.

0:09.0

And we had this running joke. It got to the point where I'd asked the question, why is the market up today?

0:14.6

And somebody would say because it's open. And that became this gag. And, you know, it's not that far from the truth.

0:19.9

Because here we are on the

0:21.1

on the tape podcast, by the way, Guy Adami, Dan Nathan, and Danny Moses sitting here on a Thursday

0:26.1

where the Dow Jones is up a cool 500 points. The S&P's up a cool 75 handles. Nasdaq, obviously

0:33.7

a commensurate move there. Some individual stocks just off to the races. It doesn't make a

0:38.2

hell of a lot of sense to me. But you know what? We're going to have a conversation with David

0:41.6

Rosenberg in a little while. Maybe it makes sense to him. Rosie of Rosenberg research. You know what,

0:46.8

listen, it's funny. He said, you guys keep asking me back. And sooner or later, I'll be right, and he was joking around here. And we made the point, some of the best

0:54.3

strategies, some of the best economists, you're not actually trading to their targets. You're not

0:58.6

trading to some of their estimates. You're actually trying to get a nuanced sense for the stuff

1:03.3

that's moving markets. And to your point, guy, about sitting on a commodities desk all those

1:07.2

years and looking at what's going on in the equities, it must have looked like it was just some kind of goofiness. I'm assuming this was like in the late 90s. The S&PB

1:14.2

the moves were not of this magnitude, but it was seemingly every day the thing just built on

1:19.4

itself. And then every once in a while you'd have an event where the market went down,

1:23.0

it came to the point where if the market was open, the market was going higher. And we're starting to see that around the edges over the last five or six trading days. The market was clearly

1:31.7

breaking down a week and a half or so ago. Maybe it got down, maybe it got over skis a little

1:37.3

bit in terms of market sentiment. Clearly that happened in the bond market. I didn't think yields

1:42.5

would move from 5% to 10 year down below 4.7%. Yet here we are.

1:48.4

Everybody now seemingly knows what's going on with Treasury. But as much as there is to like

1:52.8

about the market being higher, I understand people along stocks. There's just as much to be concerned

...

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