The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - September 4, 2024
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 4 September 2024
⏱️ 7 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Market Analysis and Economic Indicators: September 4th Update
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides a market update from Palm Beach, Florida, on September 4th. The discussion covers the aftermath of a significant market drawdown driven by weak manufacturing data and a sell-off in the technology sector, particularly semiconductors. Notably, the yield curve, which had been inverted for over two years, has now become flat, raising discussions about potential economic contractions. Szytel also highlights the sectors likely to perform well in the current economic cycle, such as staples, healthcare, and energy, and notes a trend towards dividend growth in these sectors. Additional economic indicators discussed include the lower-than-expected new job openings (JOLTS report), unchanged layoffs, increased factory orders, and mixed regional economic activity from the Fed's Beige Book. Upcoming data releases, like the ADP employment number, initial jobless claims, ISM services numbers, and the nonfarm payroll number, are also anticipated.
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview
00:46 Yield Curve Dynamics
02:40 Economic Indicators and Sector Performance
03:40 Job Market and Upcoming Data Releases
05:02 Conclusion and Viewer Engagement
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.9 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Wednesday, September the 4th, Ryan Sightel with you from our Palm Beach, Florida office. |
| 0:22.4 | Here on a fairly benign trading day, which is nice since yesterday was quite a drawdown. It was actually the third |
| 0:28.0 | largest drawdown for 2024 yesterday. And not a lot of catalyst that moved it. There was some |
| 0:34.2 | weaker manufacturing data out yesterday. And then really just a sell-off |
| 0:38.6 | and technology, particularly semiconductors yesterday. So today, some follow-through. We closed off the lows. |
| 0:44.8 | We were actually negative on all three indices, but the Dow managed to close up slightly about |
| 0:49.4 | 38 points or so. The NASDAQ and the S&P were both just slightly negative. So there you have it for |
| 0:56.2 | today. The 10 year was actually down seven basis points, closed at 3.76%. And as I wrote about today, |
| 1:05.7 | for the first time in over two years, or just a little over two years, the yield curve, which has been |
| 1:11.8 | inverted the entire time, has finally uninverted here, just slightly. We're actually exactly flat. |
| 1:18.4 | So the two year, as of right now, is at 376. The 10 year is at 376. So there you go. It's a 0.00 |
| 1:26.9 | flat Tuesday 10's yield curve right now. And historically speaking, |
| 1:33.1 | and media talks about this and people have written about it. So I wanted to address it. But |
| 1:36.7 | we've talked about an inverted yield curve being a symptom of the economy, being that something |
| 1:40.8 | isn't quite right in that the bond market is signaling that the Fed is too |
| 1:45.4 | restrictive basically because short-term rates are higher than long-term rates. And historically, |
| 1:50.5 | that has led to a recession. It actually doesn't lead to a recession, but it's indicative of |
| 1:55.3 | an economic funkiness, I guess, and that at some point there would be a recession. But almost always, |
| 2:01.3 | it uninverts right before we go into recession. So the proximity towards an economic contraction |
| 2:06.8 | once the yield curve uninverts is much closer. So all that's fine, but it still doesn't point to |
| 2:11.6 | anything definitive on timing. And so I wanted to just air that out to readers and listeners, |
... |
Please login to see the full transcript.
Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.
Generated transcripts are the property of The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.
Copyright © Tapesearch 2026.