The Dividend Cafe Thursday - September 5, 2024
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 5 September 2024
⏱️ 5 minutes
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Summary
Market Updates and Economic Insights: September 5th Edition
In today's episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel reports from West Palm Beach, Florida, sharing a mixed day in the markets. The Dow closed down by 219 points and the S&P fell by a third of a percent, though the NASDAQ saw a slight increase. The 10-year yield dropped 3 basis points, while the yield curve remains flat. Employment numbers showed weaker-than-expected private payroll growth for August, continuing a five-month trend of declining numbers. Other indicators such as ISM services and initial jobless claims were slightly better than expected. Looking ahead, non-farm payrolls are due tomorrow, and market expectations indicate potential rate cuts by the Fed through the end of 2025. Seitel wraps up with cautious optimism and invites audience questions.
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview
00:40 Employment Numbers and Economic Indicators
01:58 Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations
03:03 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:13.0 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Thursday, September the 5th. And Brian Saitel with you here from West Palm Beach, Florida again. |
| 0:22.7 | And a bit of a mixed bag today, honestly, in markets, we had the Dow that closed lower by |
| 0:29.0 | 219 points. The S&P was down by a third of a percent, but the NASDAQ was up about a quarter |
| 0:34.6 | of a percent. So mostly lower on stock prices for the day, slight rebound |
| 0:39.7 | from yesterday, SELF and tech on the NASDAQ. The 10-year yield was down three bibs, three basis points, |
| 0:45.6 | to 373. And the 210 spread, the yield curve is still basically completely flat. We're at one |
| 0:52.6 | basis point between the two. We had some |
| 0:55.4 | employment numbers out today. We had ADP private payrolls print a 99,000 for the month of August. |
| 1:01.0 | We were expecting 141. So that's a pretty decent miss on that number. We also had July get revised |
| 1:07.6 | lower by 11,000. These private payroll numbers are often different than what we |
| 1:12.1 | actually get in the non-farm payroll numbers, but are still important to read and look at, and |
| 1:16.7 | these are definitely weaker. This was the fifth consecutive month of them being lower in total, |
| 1:22.3 | so they're trending lower, and this month was the lowest since January of 21. Like I wrote, you got to be careful |
| 1:28.1 | what you wish for. The Fed set out to correct is supply and demand imbalance in the labor market |
| 1:33.1 | and that's exactly what's happening. And so I don't know why these numbers would surprise anyone |
| 1:37.2 | or markets. Frankly, I don't think that they are. We also had ISM services numbers today that were a |
| 1:43.1 | little bit better than expected. We had a 51.5 |
| 1:46.6 | versus 51 and then we had initial jobless claims. So new people filing for unemployment slightly |
| 1:53.2 | better than expected. We got a 227 versus 230. So all this to say, this basically is about |
| 1:59.8 | the most orderly slowdown that I've seen. So I would feel good about it, not bad. The numbers are fairly mixed and they're fairly benign and we're just slowly training back to these normal rates. Like I said, tomorrow we'll have non-farm payrolls out and that'll be heavily watched. It's at this point, not necessarily |
| 2:18.8 | obviously if, it's just a matter of how much they start with on September 18th as far as lowering |
... |
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