The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - October 23, 2024
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 23 October 2024
⏱️ 7 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Market Downturns and Rising Interest Rates: Insights from Dividend Cafe
In this October 23rd episode of Dividend Cafe, host Brian Szytel discusses the latest downward trends in the equity market, with the Dow down 409 points, the S&P down nine-tenths of a percent, and the Nasdaq down 1.6 percent. The primary factors contributing to this are rising bond market yields, now at 4.25% for 10-year bonds. The episode explores the impact of these changes on various sectors including housing, where existing home sales have declined by 1%, hitting numbers last seen in September 2010. Additionally, the Beige Book Survey indicates flat or slightly declining economic activity in nine out of twelve precincts, and the Bank of Canada has cut rates by 50 basis points. Brian also anticipates upcoming economic reports on initial claims, flash PMI data, and new home sales.
00:00 Market Overview and Key Indices Performance
00:21 Impact of Rising Bond Yields
01:05 Housing Market Analysis
02:28 Personal Anecdote on Real Estate
02:58 Current Real Estate Market Dynamics
04:14 Economic Indicators and Predictions
04:51 Upcoming Economic Data and Conclusion
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:10.0 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Wednesday, October the 23rd. Brian Saitel with you here on a basically across the board down day in the equity market. |
| 0:25.7 | The Dow is down 409 points on the day. |
| 0:28.9 | The S&P was down 9 tenths of a percent. |
| 0:32.0 | The NASDAQ was down about 1.6%. |
| 0:34.7 | And the story remains similar to what it has been the last few days, which is interest |
| 0:39.3 | rates in bond land. So the bond market yields have just risen. Ten year yield was up another four |
| 0:44.7 | basis points. We're now at 425 on tens. We were at 365 about 40 days ago. So that's a decent |
| 0:53.7 | move up in yields. Most of that is related to better |
| 0:57.2 | economic activity and better growth numbers, better labor market numbers. So it's not all bad. But |
| 1:03.1 | you're starting to get to a point now where interest rates are starting to rise enough to cause |
| 1:08.7 | some downward movement in the stock market. Obviously, there's other things like the election and other uncertainties that exist as well, |
| 1:15.5 | like earnings coming out and things like this. |
| 1:17.7 | On the economic side, we had existing home sales down 1%. |
| 1:22.0 | We're at an annualized basis of 3.84 million. |
| 1:25.5 | We've been hovering right around 4 million now for about a year. |
| 1:29.6 | So housing remains to be stuck. This is an ongoing story. Interest rates have risen |
| 1:34.6 | significantly for mortgage rates, and there's not a lot of activity. But to put it in perspective, |
| 1:40.3 | the amount of existing homes that were sold in the month of September of this year is the same number as September of 2010. |
| 1:49.6 | So 14 years ago. |
| 1:51.6 | So number one, that's a long time ago. |
| 1:53.6 | 14 years is a long time. |
... |
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