The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - October 22, 2024
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 22 October 2024
⏱️ 5 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Market Insights and Economic Outlook - October 22nd Edition
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides an analysis of the day's market performance, noting minimal changes in major indices with the Dow down by six points, S&P slightly negative, and Nasdaq slightly positive. He discusses the rise in 10-year Treasury yields and attributes stock market movements to fundamental factors including positive earnings and economic growth, rather than political speculation. Szytel also addresses elevated volatility and political uncertainty, emphasizing the importance of focusing on fundamentals. Additional updates include comments from San Francisco Fed President Daley on interest rates and upcoming economic data releases.
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview
00:19 Interest Rates and Bond Market Insights
00:38 Political Influence on Markets
02:27 Focus on Fundamentals
02:36 Economic News and Upcoming Data
03:26 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:13.0 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Tuesday, October the 22nd. And Brian Saitel with you here today on a very flat day in markets we dropped six |
| 0:24.7 | points on the Dow S&P and NASDAQ S&P was slightly negative NASDAQ slightly positive by about |
| 0:31.4 | 0.1%. So there you have it. The 10 year was up a basis point on the day we closed at 421. So interest rates had tended to move |
| 0:40.1 | higher here. We were down in the 355 area on 10s, and now we're up towards 420. So it's risen 55 basis |
| 0:48.6 | points at this point in about a little over a month or so. I think actually the bond market move is proof of some of the |
| 0:57.2 | reasons behind the overall stock market move, which is that it's more growth and fundamental |
| 1:02.0 | based than any sort of political guesswork on whom I win the White House. I know there's been |
| 1:07.6 | some media talk about that because I was asked last night late on |
| 1:11.2 | CBC about what I thought about Trump victory being priced into markets. If that's what was moving, |
| 1:16.6 | things like this. So short answer is no, I don't because I think it's unpredictable. And then also, |
| 1:21.7 | I just think you've had positive backdrop. You've had earnings that have been better than expected. |
| 1:26.3 | You've got earnings growth in the |
| 1:28.1 | next year that's expected to be pretty good, 15% call it. You have a Fed easing now. You've had some China |
| 1:34.4 | stimulus come out. And you've had the labor market impress and all of these things together are |
| 1:40.9 | why markets have traded a little bit higher here. That said, I think the reason the |
| 1:45.6 | volatility index, the VIX, is also elevated because usually you get strong markets, you get |
| 1:50.5 | volatility that can sometimes move lower because people are feeling better. But that's not the case here. |
| 1:56.4 | And I think that is more trivial to political uncertainty than some of the moves in the asset classes. |
| 2:02.6 | And suffices to say, regardless of all of that, I know there's a tendency to want to try to |
| 2:07.2 | position around outcomes of different things like the election and what policies may come to |
| 2:12.2 | pass or what are not, but we don't even know which way Congress is going to go either. |
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