The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - May 15, 2024
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 15 May 2024
⏱️ 4 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Market Update: A Positive Turn with Cooler Inflation Numbers
This episode of Dividend Cafe provides a financial market update for Wednesday, May 15th, marking a positive trading day with the Dow up by 349 points and a rally in bonds. The episode highlights a cooler than expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April at 0.3%, indicating a positive trend in inflation rates. The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed mixed signals with March's deflationary revision and a hotter April.
These figures suggest a potential 2.8% year-over-year Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which is crucial for Federal Reserve considerations.
Despite lower than expected retail sales and a contractionary Empire Manufacturing Survey, the episode suggests these are potentially positive signs for the Fed to lower interest rates.
00:19 Inflation and Economic Indicators Update 01:17 Retail Sales and Manufacturing Insights 01:54 Closing Thoughts and Tomorrow's Preview
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.2 | Hello and welcome the Dividend Cafe. This is Wednesday, May the 15th. In what was a generally positive day in trading for the session, we had the Dow closing up |
| 0:22.4 | 349 points and bonds rallied as well. We had 10-year down, 10 basis points to 434 on the day. And |
| 0:30.4 | what was behind it was a cooler than expected CPI number. So we got a consumer price index that |
| 0:35.3 | came out at 0.3% for the month of April for both |
| 0:38.7 | core and headline, which was better than 0.4% expected. And it's obviously a positive sign |
| 0:44.4 | for what was widely anticipated to come out for the day, which was another inflation read. |
| 0:49.2 | Yesterday, PPI was a bit of a mixed bag with March being revised to a negative number, |
| 0:55.3 | which is deflationary, |
| 1:00.2 | and April coming out hotter than expected. So the combination of these two things, if you calculate both PPI and CPI together, you can get a decent picture on where PCE, which is what the Fed looks at |
| 1:07.0 | the most, will come out in two weeks' time, which is around 2.8% year over year. |
| 1:12.7 | All this to me suggests, again, moving in the right direction on inflation and whether the Fed |
| 1:17.2 | holds rates here for a period of time longer through September or they don't. |
| 1:21.4 | At the end, the economy is hanging in there and inflation moving in that right direction, |
| 1:25.8 | which is good. We did have retail sales come in |
| 1:28.8 | lower than expected for the day. They were coming in exactly flat, so unchanged at 0%. We were expecting |
| 1:34.9 | 0.4% on retail sales, which is a little bit slow. And we had an empire manufacturing survey that |
| 1:41.2 | was contractionary more than than expected at negative 15 versus negative 10. |
| 1:46.3 | Last thing was that we had an AHB home builder sentiment expected that was bigger drop with higher |
| 1:52.0 | mortgage rates. So a couple of negative pieces in there with some cooler inflation. Believe it or |
| 1:57.2 | not, some of that stuff is bad news looking as good with what the Fed needs in order to start lowering interest rates. |
| 2:04.1 | So that's your day on the trading day. |
... |
Please login to see the full transcript.
Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.
Generated transcripts are the property of The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.
Copyright © Tapesearch 2026.