The Dividend Cafe Thursday - May 16, 2024
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 16 May 2024
⏱️ 5 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Market Update and Economic Indicators: A Snapshot
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, recorded on Thursday, May 16th, the host provides a summary of the day's market activity, noting a flat day in the markets with a brief touch on 40,000 points on the Dow. Despite a mild decline by the close, bond yields rose slightly, and recent economic indicators including the CPI data, Philly fed and empire state manufacturing indexes, and industrial production, suggest a steady, if not expanding, economy. Brian also points out the positive jobless claims data and the rebound in new home constructions as signs of economic health. Additionally, an increase in real personal income and a 35% rise in the S&P 500 since the pre-pandemic period are highlighted as indicators that do not point towards an immediate recession. The episode concludes with a look forward to the next Dividend Cafe installment and wishes for a good weekend.
00:02 Market Overview: A Flat Yet Positive Day 00:38 Manufacturing and Economic Indicators: Holding Steady 01:05 Employment and Income: Signs of Economic Health 02:25 Housing Market and Inflation: A Positive Outlook 03:05 Closing Thoughts and Look Ahead
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio |
| 0:06.6 | and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:13.2 | Hello and welcome the Dividend Cafe. It is Thursday, May the 16th, and a flat day actually |
| 0:19.9 | in markets at the close, although we were up most |
| 0:22.8 | of the day in the trading day. And actually, earlier this morning, we actually breached 40,000 |
| 0:27.3 | on the Dow. And for someone that remembers when it was just 10,000, I suppose that dates |
| 0:31.9 | me a bit. It's nice to see that for the first time. We actually closed just below. The Dow was down |
| 0:36.3 | 38 points on the day. Bond yields were up just slightly, up two basis points on 10 time. We actually closed just below. The Dow was down 38 points on the day. |
| 0:38.2 | Bond yields were up just slightly up two basis points on tens. We closed at 438. It's a bit quiet to |
| 0:43.9 | close into the day, but following better than expected CPI data yesterday, I think the market is |
| 0:48.7 | generally still trading quite positive. Philly Fed manufacturing today was a little weaker, |
| 0:54.1 | as was the Empire State |
| 0:55.4 | Manufacturing Index, but basically still in line. Manufacturing is holding in there, right? |
| 1:00.8 | Just in expansion territory on that number, industrial production today was flat. So across the board, |
| 1:07.5 | these whatever four different metrics in manufacturing are not necessarily showing |
| 1:12.0 | a continued big expansion, but also not declined, just flatlining in there, which isn't necessarily |
| 1:16.9 | a negative thing. That combined with total number of employed in this country at 158 million |
| 1:22.3 | versus 153 pre-pandemic, if you look at real personal income, meaning above inflation, what has gone |
| 1:31.2 | above inflation since the pre-pandemic era, even though inflation has averaged a higher amount, |
| 1:36.7 | X transfer payments from governments, we're up a trillion, we're now at 16 trillion in real |
| 1:41.6 | personal income, and then S&P 500 is up 35% percent since pre-pandemic. |
| 1:47.5 | So if you look at those three different things, manufacturing hanging in there, more employed than we |
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