The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - September 17, 2024
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 17 September 2024
⏱️ 5 minutes
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Summary
Market Insights Ahead of Fed Decision - September 17 Update
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides a market update from the Newport Beach office on Tuesday, September 17. The day saw relatively quiet trading with slight fluctuations as the market anticipates the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate policy. Key points discussed include better-than-expected retail sales and significant improvements in industrial production, particularly influenced by the auto sector. The bond market and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts are also analyzed, highlighting concerns about market pricing and corporate earnings expectations. The episode concludes with a look ahead to the Fed's upcoming policy meeting.
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview
00:30 Retail Sales and Industrial Production Insights
01:08 Bond Market and Fed Expectations
02:11 Market Pricing and Future Outlook
02:45 Conclusion and Upcoming Fed Meeting
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:10.0 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Tuesday, September the 17th. Brian Saitel with you here in our Newport Beach office. |
| 0:20.0 | Good to be with you as always. |
| 0:22.6 | And what was frankly a pretty quiet trading day, we actually did touch our mid-July highs earlier |
| 0:29.1 | in the morning and then gave way to some slightly negative markets towards the close. But really, |
| 0:34.3 | it was pretty benign just because tomorrow we've got our Fed decision |
| 0:38.5 | on interest rate policy and then guidance going forward, the dot plots, and all of that. So |
| 0:43.8 | somewhat of a quiet day in markets otherwise. We did have retail sales that were out. Better than |
| 0:49.7 | expected, we got a 0.1% increase versus a decline of negative 0.2%. |
| 0:55.0 | So some better numbers there on retail sales, and then we had some industrial production numbers that were actually meaningfully better. |
| 1:03.0 | We got 0.8 versus a decline of point two. |
| 1:05.0 | Some of that, though, was around some volatility in the auto sector. |
| 1:09.0 | So take that for what it is. |
| 1:10.0 | It wasn't necessarily a real |
| 1:12.1 | broad-based manufacturing strength in some of those numbers. Those are the two pieces of economic |
| 1:16.5 | news on the day, largely, and markets were fairly flat overall. The 10-year was up a couple of bases |
| 1:23.3 | points. We closed at 365. But as I wrote, at this point, a 60-40 is what's priced in the Fed |
| 1:31.1 | futures, whether we'll get a 50 basis point or a 25 basis point rate cut. So those numbers have |
| 1:36.4 | shifted quite a bit. And the bond market, like I said last week, has really priced in this |
| 1:40.8 | larger move to start. But again, I think it'll come down to more on guidance from |
| 1:45.9 | the Fed and what they're looking at for some of those longer-term inflation expectations and then |
| 1:51.9 | longer-term rate expectations as we go forward. All to say, we still think there's about a neutral |
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