The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - July 2, 2024
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 2 July 2024
⏱️ 5 minutes
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Summary
Market Update and Economic Insights Ahead of July 4th Holiday
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides a market update for Tuesday, July 2nd. With a quiet day in the markets leading up to the 4th of July holiday, key highlights include a slight yield drop on tens, robust performance in the consumer discretionary sector, and job openings exceeding expectations, indicating labor market resilience. Fed Chair Powell's remarks on disinflation progress at the Sentra conference in Portugal were also discussed. Additionally, the episode delves into the dynamics between private credit and investment-grade credit, highlighting expansion trends and credit risk considerations. Brian also previews the upcoming economic data releases for the next day, such as ADP private payrolls, jobless claims, and factory orders, and announces the release of a detailed Dividend Cafe newsletter.
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:27 Economic Indicators and Labor Market 01:02 Federal Reserve and Fixed Income Insights 01:39 Investment Grade Credit and Private Credit 02:56 Upcoming Economic Events and Conclusion
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.8 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Brian Saitel with you today. It is Tuesday, July 2nd. |
| 0:19.3 | And what was really quiet today in markets overall, we've got the 4th of July holiday on Thursday. |
| 0:25.6 | And so with the market closed, and I think that there's just traders heading out for the |
| 0:30.0 | holiday weekend at this point. |
| 0:31.6 | But things were quiet. |
| 0:33.1 | We gave up a little bit of yield on tens, a couple of basis points after yesterday's run-up, |
| 0:37.4 | which was |
| 0:37.7 | positive. And the biggest sector on the day was consumer discretionary with the largest electric |
| 0:42.4 | vehicle manufacturer being up meaningfully on the day, moved that sector higher over a percent. |
| 0:47.8 | As far as economic news on the day, job openings or jolts exceeded expectations. So this is |
| 0:53.3 | showing more signs of resiliency and labor. |
| 0:55.9 | We were expecting 7.91. We got 8.19 there. And again, more employers are looking to add jobs and |
| 1:02.6 | add employees. And that's technically a positive thing, although there is a supply and demand |
| 1:06.8 | imbalance in labor. And the Fed is watching that stuff pretty closely at this point. We had |
| 1:11.4 | Powell out at the Cintra conference in Portugal with other central bankers around the world. |
| 1:17.4 | He did mention the significant progress and disinflation, but also that more time was needed to |
| 1:22.2 | gain more confidence. So basically more of the same message. Fed futures didn't change much on the |
| 1:27.1 | news. They've been hovering |
| 1:28.3 | around that sort of level now for a couple of days. There was a couple of comments in there that I |
| 1:33.3 | added on fixed income for the day, both in the difference between private credit and the expansion. |
| 1:39.1 | It gets a lot of news. A lot of money has come into the space. The yields for investors are now double digits, and so it's attracting a lot of money. |
... |
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