A Mid-Year Check-In
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 3 July 2024
⏱️ 23 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3XNIiUU
Mid-Year Market Report:
In this special Dividend Cafe episode, released ahead of the 4th of July weekend, David delivers a comprehensive mid-year market update. Key points include strong performance in major indices such as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, uneven sector returns led by technology, and resilience in international markets. The episode also discusses the minimal impact of Fed policies on market momentum, the complexities of de-globalization and its economic impact, and the significant themes for 2024. Volatility has been low despite predictions, and the episode concludes with a reflection on the diverse economic indicators, housing market anomalies, and anticipation of future market dynamics.
00:00 Welcome and Mid-Year Check-In 01:10 Market Performance Overview 02:26 Sector and International Market Analysis 03:40 Bond and Commodity Market Insights 05:20 Volatility and Market Breadth 07:38 Economic Indicators and Mixed Signals 10:35 Credit Market and Forecast Review 11:44 Key Themes and Predictions for 2024 20:19 Final Thoughts and 4th of July Message
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.4 | Well, hello and welcome to this very special Dividend Cafe special because it is coming to you on a Wednesday. |
| 0:20.7 | Tomorrow, of course, is July the 4th. The markets are |
| 0:24.4 | closed on Thursday. And even though markets will be open on Friday the 5th, we thought it'd be better to |
| 0:31.6 | get this mid-year report out to you going into the long weekend. Surely Friday is going to be pretty muted work |
| 0:41.2 | activity for a lot of people. So we're giving you a dividend cafe a couple days early. And to add to |
| 0:48.7 | the specialness of it, we want to really do a sort of mid-year check-in. |
| 0:56.8 | We closed out the second quarter. |
| 1:03.3 | At the end of last week, we are now just a couple days into the second half of 2024. |
| 1:04.9 | And I don't believe I've ever done this before, but I thought I would take the year ahead projections that we did at the beginning |
| 1:13.3 | of the year. Those are things we've done every year now for well over 10 years, but provide a kind |
| 1:20.1 | of check-in as to where some of those things stand. We'll start with just a little bit of an update |
| 1:26.2 | as to where things are in the markets through the |
| 1:28.5 | first half of the year. It's not a big surprise that most investment assets are in positive |
| 1:34.3 | territory on the year. The Dow was up 4.7% in the first half. Even the Russell 2000, which is |
| 1:43.4 | the small cap index, was technically up about 1%, and yet the |
| 1:48.8 | S&P was up 15%. The NASDAQ, even a little bit more than that, close to 17%. So you can call it a risk on |
| 1:58.2 | rally if you want, but it was really not one in which the rally |
| 2:03.1 | was evenly distributed. |
| 2:05.1 | And I've talked so much about the kind of top heavy nature of the market right now. |
| 2:09.5 | But I'm going to get back to that in a moment. |
| 2:12.2 | There's other things that I think are more peculiar and more interesting about the market |
... |
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